Public evidence record
xdraw
0x2ffe164d6e056a57d074a17b3f4a591c571da60f
Verified
Record anatomy
Know what this profile can prove.
Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
Identity statusUnclaimed public record
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Stats recomputedAug 8, 2026
Source sync: Aug 7, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers.
Cumulative returnUnits normalized to the average position
Oldest settled position120 points shownMost recent
Sample-adjusted return
+6.9%221 settled positionsClosing line value
Insufficient sample9 pre-event fillsBeat the close
Insufficient sample9 pre-event fillsSettlement record
20-6Wins · losses · pushes95% confidence interval on return: +5.7% to +8.2%
221 settled positions · 1,423 taker fills · $201,480 deployed
Closing line value measured over 9 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making
Return is sample-adjusted. It is pulled toward the population average in proportion to how little data there is, so a large figure over few positions ranks below a smaller one over many. Full methodology.
Position log
Every settled position, newest first. Losses render exactly as wins do.
| Settled | Outcome | Entry (implied) | Cost | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | exited | 95% · -1983 | $238 | +12 |
| 2026-08-06 | exited | 87% · -669 | $208 | +31 |
| 2026-08-04 | exited | 75% · -302 | $170 | −98 |
| 2026-08-04 | exited | 89% · -809 | $4 | +0 |
| 2026-08-04 | exited | 88% · -733 | $287 | +39 |
| 2026-08-03 | won | 87% · -676 | $204 | +30 |
| 2026-08-03 | exited | 65% · -187 | $228 | −109 |
| 2026-08-03 | exited | 59% · -144 | $216 | +117 |
| 2026-08-01 | exited | 88% · -736 | $347 | +47 |
| 2026-07-31 | exited | 55% · -121 | $341 | +281 |
| 2026-07-30 | won | 80% · -400 | $252 | +63 |
| 2026-07-29 | exited | 87% · -700 | $566 | +80 |
| 2026-07-26 | won | 88% · -712 | $204 | +28 |
| 2026-07-25 | exited | 86% · -614 | $355 | +57 |
| 2026-07-25 | exited | 84% · -525 | $252 | +48 |
| 2026-07-24 | exited | 71% · -245 | $36 | −9 |
| 2026-07-24 | exited | 79% · -376 | $393 | +104 |
| 2026-07-24 | won | 80% · -400 | $319 | +79 |
| 2026-07-23 | won | 93% · -1329 | $298 | −61 |
| 2026-07-22 | exited | 76% · -311 | $350 | +112 |
| 2026-07-22 | exited | 80% · -400 | $482 | −184 |
| 2026-07-22 | exited | 87% · -669 | $376 | +56 |
| 2026-07-21 | exited | 86% · -614 | $240 | +39 |
| 2026-07-21 | exited | 72% · -259 | $300 | −10 |
| 2026-07-21 | exited | 89% · -774 | $184 | +13 |
| 2026-07-20 | won | 80% · -412 | $219 | +53 |
| 2026-07-20 | exited | 78% · -355 | $141 | +40 |
| 2026-07-20 | exited | 75% · -300 | $107 | +36 |
| 2026-07-20 | exited | 42% · +140 | $201 | −43 |
| 2026-07-19 | exited | 69% · -220 | $330 | −37 |
| 2026-07-18 | exited | 87% · -666 | $178 | +26 |
| 2026-07-18 | exited | 77% · -330 | $391 | +118 |
| 2026-07-17 | exited | 85% · -553 | $364 | +65 |
| 2026-07-16 | exited | 81% · -426 | $572 | +134 |
| 2026-07-15 | exited | 86% · -614 | $431 | +70 |
| 2026-07-14 | exited | 83% · -488 | $361 | +73 |
| 2026-07-14 | exited | 74% · -281 | $162 | +54 |
| 2026-07-14 | exited | 75% · -300 | $125 | +39 |
| 2026-07-14 | exited | 64% · -178 | $121 | +55 |
| 2026-07-13 | exited | 74% · -285 | $196 | +69 |
| 2026-07-13 | exited | 90% · -900 | $195 | +9 |
| 2026-07-12 | won | 88% · -736 | $495 | −144 |
| 2026-07-12 | exited | 60% · -150 | $162 | +107 |
| 2026-07-11 | exited | 84% · -519 | $539 | −178 |
| 2026-07-10 | exited | 62% · -163 | $21 | +13 |
| 2026-07-09 | won | 71% · -245 | $27 | −7 |
| 2026-07-09 | won | 69% · -223 | $44 | +15 |
| 2026-07-08 | won | 74% · -289 | $110 | −27 |
| 2026-07-08 | exited | 30% · +234 | $41 | +42 |
| 2026-07-08 | won | 87% · -687 | $94 | +14 |
| 2026-07-08 | won | 56% · -129 | $138 | −43 |
| 2026-07-07 | exited | 80% · -405 | $201 | −76 |
| 2026-07-07 | won | 74% · -285 | $305 | +97 |
| 2026-07-06 | exited | 52% · -109 | $216 | −33 |
| 2026-07-06 | exited | 85% · -567 | $299 | +52 |
| 2026-07-06 | lost | 74% · -285 | $294 | −119 |
| 2026-07-05 | exited | 95% · -1900 | $247 | −5 |
| 2026-07-05 | exited | 72% · -254 | $178 | +70 |
| 2026-07-05 | exited | 74% · -284 | $203 | −93 |
| 2026-07-04 | lost | 77% · -343 | $203 | −203 |
| 2026-07-03 | lost | 86% · -614 | $284 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | won | 57% · -133 | $142 | +107 |
| 2026-07-03 | lost | 78% · -355 | $210 | −64 |
| 2026-07-03 | exited | 82% · -442 | $265 | +60 |
| 2026-07-01 | exited | 93% · -1329 | $289 | +21 |
| 2026-07-01 | exited | 59% · -144 | $190 | −141 |
| 2026-06-30 | exited | 75% · -300 | $318 | −123 |
| 2026-06-30 | won | 93% · -1351 | $333 | +24 |
| 2026-06-30 | won | 82% · -451 | $178 | +39 |
| 2026-06-29 | won | 70% · -233 | $266 | +114 |
| 2026-06-26 | exited | 81% · -421 | $168 | −32 |
| 2026-06-23 | won | 93% · -1329 | $556 | +42 |
| 2026-06-22 | exited | 79% · -376 | $56 | +15 |
| 2026-06-22 | exited | 87% · -669 | $167 | +25 |
| 2026-06-21 | exited | 87% · -669 | $883 | +131 |
| 2026-06-21 | exited | 94% · -1567 | $178 | +9 |
| 2026-06-21 | exited | 92% · -1150 | $680 | +58 |
| 2026-06-18 | exited | 50% · -100 | $1 | +0 |
| 2026-06-18 | exited | 97% · -3233 | $1 | +0 |
| 2026-06-18 | exited | 87% · -669 | $362 | +54 |
| 2026-06-18 | exited | 93% · -1329 | $326 | +24 |
| 2026-06-17 | won | 99% · -9900 | $1,205 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | exited | 87% · -669 | $769 | +114 |
| 2026-06-17 | exited | 88% · -715 | $678 | +94 |
| 2026-06-17 | won | 93% · -1293 | $543 | +41 |
| 2026-06-16 | exited | 96% · -2400 | $288 | +9 |
| 2026-06-16 | exited | 92% · -1150 | $242 | +21 |
| 2026-06-15 | exited | 92% · -1150 | $460 | +35 |
| 2026-06-15 | exited | 97% · -3233 | $322 | +10 |
| 2026-06-12 | exited | 91% · -1011 | $5 | −0 |
| 2026-04-09 | exited | 97% · -3192 | $10,130 | +316 |
| 2026-04-08 | exited | 90% · -853 | $999 | −843 |
| 2026-04-08 | exited | 98% · -4900 | $1,428 | +29 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 97% · -3233 | $1,375 | +42 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 97% · -2989 | $1,333 | +45 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 97% · -2940 | $1,304 | +32 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 94% · -1567 | $1,227 | +79 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 92% · -1150 | $1,087 | +96 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 96% · -2400 | $1,048 | +44 |
| 2026-04-07 | exited | 98% · -4458 | $1,028 | +23 |