Public evidence record

0xd849…206e

0xd849b5d87c44c8553b50e1ad20b35f1d88ae206e

Verified

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology
Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedAug 8, 2026

Source sync: Aug 8, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers.

Cumulative returnUnits normalized to the average position
Oldest settled position120 points shownMost recent

Sample-adjusted return

+24.8%1,456 settled positions

Closing line value

-0.78%303 pre-event fills

Beat the close

+39%303 pre-event fills

Settlement record

123-200-1Wins · losses · pushes

95% confidence interval on return: +20.5% to +29.1%

1,456 settled positions · 5,184 taker fills · $2,992 deployed

Closing line value measured over 303 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Return is sample-adjusted. It is pulled toward the population average in proportion to how little data there is, so a large figure over few positions ranks below a smaller one over many. Full methodology.

Position log

Every settled position, newest first. Losses render exactly as wins do.

SettledOutcomeEntry (implied)CostResult
2026-08-08exited70% · -233$2+1
2026-08-08exited65% · -186$1+1
2026-08-08exited55% · -122$1
2026-08-08exited66% · -194$1
2026-08-08exited60% · -150$2
2026-08-08exited35% · +186$1+3
2026-08-08exited68% · -208$3+1
2026-08-07exited61% · -156$1+1
2026-08-07exited65% · -186$2+1
2026-08-07exited77% · -332$3+1
2026-08-07exited38% · +166$1+2
2026-08-07exited77% · -335$1
2026-08-07exited76% · -317$1+0
2026-08-07exited73% · -270$1+1
2026-08-07exited73% · -270$1+1
2026-08-07exited60% · -150$2
2026-08-07exited65% · -186$1
2026-08-07exited75% · -300$2+0
2026-08-07exited75% · -300$2+0
2026-08-07exited51% · -104$1+1
2026-08-07exited66% · -194$1+1
2026-08-07exited75% · -300$2
2026-08-07exited50% · -100$2+1
2026-08-07exited70% · -233$1+1
2026-08-07exited65% · -186$1
2026-08-07exited61% · -156$1
2026-08-07exited51% · -104$1+1
2026-08-07exited61% · -156$1
2026-08-07exited62% · -163$1+1
2026-08-07exited58% · -138$1+1
2026-08-07exited67% · -203$1
2026-08-07exited81% · -426$1
2026-08-07exited40% · +150$2+2
2026-08-07exited59% · -144$1+1
2026-08-07exited45% · +122$1+2
2026-08-07exited83% · -488$1+0
2026-08-07exited76% · -317$1
2026-08-07exited72% · -257$1
2026-08-07exited69% · -223$1+1
2026-08-07exited68% · -213$1+1
2026-08-07exited54% · -117$1+1
2026-08-07exited83% · -488$1+0
2026-08-07exited85% · -567$1
2026-08-07exited43% · +133$2+2
2026-08-07exited54% · -118$3+2
2026-08-07exited82% · -456$1+0
2026-08-07exited70% · -233$1+1
2026-08-07exited81% · -426$1
2026-08-07exited39% · +157$3+5
2026-08-07lost45% · +122$1−1
2026-08-07lost63% · -170$1−1
2026-08-07exited81% · -426$1+0
2026-08-07exited82% · -456$1+0
2026-08-07exited67% · -203$1+1
2026-08-07exited42% · +138$2+2
2026-08-07exited29% · +245$2+4
2026-08-07exited78% · -355$2+0
2026-08-07exited78% · -355$1
2026-08-07exited81% · -426$2+0
2026-08-07exited81% · -426$2+0
2026-08-07exited39% · +154$3+5
2026-08-07lost73% · -270$1−1
2026-08-07exited47% · +113$3+3
2026-08-07exited82% · -456$2+0
2026-08-07exited66% · -194$1+1
2026-08-07exited47% · +113$1
2026-08-07exited52% · -108$1+1
2026-08-07exited80% · -400$1+0
2026-08-07exited75% · -300$1+0
2026-08-07exited78% · -355$2+0
2026-08-07exited84% · -525$1+0
2026-08-07exited84% · -525$1+0
2026-08-07exited72% · -257$1+1
2026-08-07exited49% · +105$4+5
2026-08-07exited68% · -213$1+1
2026-08-07exited48% · +108$1+2
2026-08-07exited66% · -194$2+1
2026-08-07exited36% · +178$2+3
2026-08-07exited43% · +133$2+2
2026-08-07lost55% · -122$2−2
2026-08-07exited62% · -163$2+1
2026-08-07lost30% · +233$1−1
2026-08-07lost48% · +108$2−2
2026-08-07exited64% · -178$2+1
2026-08-07exited53% · -113$1+1
2026-08-07exited65% · -186$2+1
2026-08-07lost60% · -150$2−2
2026-08-07lost40% · +150$2−2
2026-08-07lost52% · -108$2−2
2026-08-07lost42% · +138$1−1
2026-08-07exited64% · -178$2+1
2026-08-07exited69% · -223$2+1
2026-08-07exited47% · +113$2−0
2026-08-07lost62% · -160$3−3
2026-08-07lost51% · -105$4−4
2026-08-07lost42% · +138$3−3
2026-08-07exited76% · -317$2−0
2026-08-07exited72% · -257$2+1
2026-08-07exited67% · -203$2+0
2026-08-07exited27% · +270$2−0