Public evidence record

itoldyouso-849

0x1f8a8908cc634ca520432310903824cd242745a0

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.9%129 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.4%$6,142 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+1.21%67 pre-event fills

Settlement record

107-15Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−3.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 129 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.1% to -0.7%

129 closed positions · 446 taker fills · $6,142 deployed

Typical position $30 (median) · closing line value measured over 67 pre-event fills · 3% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Tolentino: Guiomar Maristany vs Despina Papamichailtennis · moneyline	Guiomar Maristany	exited	97¢ · -3233	$22	+0
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs Moyuka Uchijimatennis · moneyline	Lanlana Tararudee	won	98¢ · -4248	$58	+1
2026-09-21	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	93¢ · -1329	$20	—
2026-09-21	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	exited	88¢ · -733