Public evidence record

DD-88

0x2390d1d71532cdfe26ea08f19191591eaedca15f

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.8%263 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.9%$38,473 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.16%272 pre-event fills

Settlement record

168-85Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−11.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 263 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.1% to +1.5%

263 closed positions · 428 taker fills · $38,473 deployed

Typical position $51 (median) · closing line value measured over 272 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$12

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Yes

entry 14¢ · +615now 11¢ · +852−3.5 pts

Open

value$320

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +237now 29¢ · +248−0.9 pts

Open

value$32

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Yes

entry 13¢ · +696now 8¢ · +1135−4.5 pts

Open

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 0 sports · 0 non-sports · 100 unlabeled. Unlabeled means we have not matched that condition to market metadata yet — not that it was removed.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-04	Unlabeled marketUnlabeled	—	lost	81¢ · -426	$1,009	−748
2026-09-03	Unlabeled marketUnlabeled	—	lost	55¢ · -122	$10	−10
2026-09-03	Unlabeled marketUnlabeled	—	won	41¢ · +144	$10	+14
2026-09-03	Unlabeled marketUnlabeled	—	lost