Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
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Public evidence record
0x25f99c85a2dcd6344fb376f52a4dadfb2e441cfa
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Oct 4, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-7.4%79 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-3.5%$24,955 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-0.05%60 pre-event fillsSettlement record
36-40Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−6.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 79 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -18.8% to +4.0%
79 closed positions · 142 taker fills · $24,955 deployed
Typical position $163 (median) · closing line value measured over 60 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 87 sports · 10 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 1¢ · +19900 | $6 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gauthier Onclintennis · moneyline | Gauthier Onclin | lost | 15¢ · +567 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-07-15 | England vs. Argentina · Spread England (-1.5)soccer · spreads | England | lost | 14¢ · +590 | $482 | −482 |
| 2026-07-14 | France vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners |
| Over |
| exited |
| 40¢ · +150 |
| $1,028 |
| −417 |
| 2026-07-14 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | France | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $606 | −606 |
| 2026-07-13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETNon-sports | Up | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $4 | −4 |
| 2026-07-12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ETNon-sports | Up | lost | 9¢ · +954 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ETNon-sports | Down | lost | 22¢ · +351 | $439 | −439 |
| 2026-07-12 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $504 | −62 |
| 2026-07-12 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevtennis · moneyline | Alexander Zverev | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $1,031 | −527 |
| 2026-07-12 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevtennis · moneyline | Jannik Sinner | won | 80¢ · -400 | $1,550 | −519 |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Cornerssoccer · total corners | Over | won | 76¢ · -317 | $587 | −268 |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Switzerland | lost | 25¢ · +304 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-07-11 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Conor McGregor | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-07-11 | UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Benoît Saint Denis | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | England | won | 68¢ · -209 | $1,274 | +427 |
| 2026-07-11 | Harry Kane: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | exited | 50¢ · -100 | $51 | −21 |
| 2026-07-11 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $51 | −21 |
| 2026-07-11 | Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskovatennis · moneyline | Karolina Muchova | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $129 | −129 |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 63¢ · -170 | $86 | +48 |
| 2026-07-10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?Non-sports | Yes | won | 49¢ · +105 | $62 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Cornerssoccer · total corners | Over | lost | 63¢ · -169 | $86 | −86 |
| 2026-07-10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 34¢ · +197 | $41 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Zverev | won | 75¢ · -300 | $608 | +193 |
| 2026-07-09 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | France | won | 99¢ · -13233 | $1,648 | +12 |
| 2026-07-09 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | won | 28¢ · +261 | $544 | +1,104 |
| 2026-07-09 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 46¢ · +116 | $1,013 | −475 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskovatennis · moneyline | Marta Kostyuk | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $246 | −246 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gaufftennis · moneyline | Coco Gauff | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-07-08 | Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Ferytennis · moneyline | Arthur Fery | won | 33¢ · +203 | $51 | +101 |
| 2026-07-08 | Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevtennis · moneyline | Taylor Fritz | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $66 | −66 |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Switzerland | won | 45¢ · +122 | $43 | +51 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovictennis · moneyline | Novak Djokovic | won | 57¢ · -133 | $68 | +50 |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $35 | −35 |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Argentina | won | 78¢ · -355 | $271 | +74 |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Egypt | exited | 15¢ · +567 | $18 | +7 |
| 2026-07-07 | Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Struff (+2.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Struff | lost | 38¢ · +163 | $32 | −32 |
| 2026-07-06 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Belgium | won | 48¢ · +108 | $49 | +51 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverevtennis · moneyline | Alexander Zverev | won | 74¢ · -285 | $151 | +35 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | won | 65¢ · -182 | $222 | −95 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Non-sports | No | exited | 48¢ · +108 | $415 | +147 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-07-06 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-07-06 | Minaur vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5tennis · tennis match totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -118 | $61 | +50 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | England | won | 51¢ · -104 | $668 | +623 |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Norway | won | 30¢ · +233 | $204 | +462 |
| 2026-07-05 | Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Mochizuki | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $496 | −496 |
| 2026-07-05 | Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osakatennis · moneyline | Aryna Sabalenka | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $304 | −304 |
| 2026-07-04 | Safiullin vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5tennis · tennis match totals | Under | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $193 | −193 |
| 2026-07-04 | Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | France | won | 93¢ · -1329 | $1,118 | +82 |
| 2026-07-04 | Michael Olise: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $204 | −204 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Morocco | won | 73¢ · -270 | $605 | +216 |
| 2026-07-04 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Cabo Verde | lost | 8¢ · +1150 | $92 | +10 |
| 2026-07-03 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Ghana | lost | 19¢ · +426 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Australia | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $203 | −203 |
| 2026-07-03 | Jodar vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 36.5tennis · tennis match totals | Over | won | 55¢ · -124 | $507 | +396 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonsecatennis · moneyline | Joao Fonseca | lost | 76¢ · -317 | $302 | −302 |
| 2026-07-02 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | won | 43¢ · +133 | $51 | +65 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-07-02 | Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 40.5tennis · tennis match totals | Under | won | 52¢ · -108 | $101 | +91 |
| 2026-07-02 | Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Bustatennis · moneyline | Rafael Jodar | won | 43¢ · +133 | $163 | +209 |
| 2026-07-02 | Minaur vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 36.5tennis · tennis match totals | Under | won | 55¢ · -121 | $203 | +163 |
| 2026-07-01 | Spread: United States (-2.5)soccer · spreads | United States | lost | 27¢ · +270 | $97 | −97 |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Belgium | won | 57¢ · -133 | $152 | +111 |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Senegal | lost | 41¢ · +144 | $112 | −112 |
| 2026-07-01 | England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 41¢ · +142 | $212 | −212 |
| 2026-07-01 | England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 50¢ · -100 | $264 | +256 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Botic van de Zandschulptennis · moneyline | Roman Safiullin | won | 57¢ · -134 | $281 | +171 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Ecuador | lost | 37¢ · +170 | $97 | −97 |
| 2026-06-30 | Will France win on 2026-06-30?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 77¢ · -335 | $896 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Sheltontennis · moneyline | Ben Shelton | lost | 56¢ · -129 | $179 | −179 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon ATP: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguettennis · moneyline | Adrian Mannarino | won | 76¢ · -318 | $901 | +275 |
| 2026-06-29 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-29 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 9¢ · +1011 | $51 | — |
| 2026-06-29 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 18¢ · +456 | $51 | — |
| 2026-06-29 | Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvettennis · moneyline | Arthur Rinderknech | won | 58¢ · -138 | $141 | +99 |
| 2026-06-28 | South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Canada | won | 74¢ · -285 | $750 | +256 |
| 2026-06-27 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 83¢ · -488 | $626 | — |
| 2026-06-27 | Will England win on 2026-06-27?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 85¢ · -567 | $535 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | won | 37¢ · +170 | $654 | +1,081 |
| 2026-06-02 | Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollitennis · moneyline | Felix Auger-Aliassime | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $98 | −98 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5tennis · tennis match totals | Over | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $181 | −181 |
| 2026-06-02 | Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevtennis · moneyline | Alexander Zverev | won | 78¢ · -355 | $219 | +60 |
| 2026-06-02 | Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuktennis · moneyline | Elina Svitolina | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $32 | −32 |
| 2026-06-01 | Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnalditennis · moneyline | Matteo Arnaldi | won | 53¢ · -113 | $357 | +307 |
| 2026-06-01 | Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnalditennis · moneyline | Frances Tiafoe | lost | 52¢ · -109 | $401 | −43 |
| 2026-05-28 | Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolotennis · moneyline | Jannik Sinner | lost | 34¢ · +190 | $683 | −516 |
| 2026-05-28 | Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolotennis · moneyline | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | won | 91¢ · -987 | $145 | −16 |
| 2026-05-27 | Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 94¢ · -1567 | $1,162 | — |
| 2026-05-16 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 4¢ · +2497 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-05-16 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 4¢ · +2547 | $107 | −107 |
| 2026-05-10 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptistetennis · moneyline | Hailey Baptiste | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $204 | −182 |
| 2026-05-09 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Belluccitennis · moneyline | Mattia Bellucci | won | 59¢ · -144 | $101 | +68 |
| 2026-05-09 | UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Sean Strickland | won | 19¢ · +426 | $51 | +161 |
| 2026-05-09 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navonetennis · moneyline | Felix Auger-Aliassime | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $132 | −78 |
| 2026-05-09 | Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 59¢ · -144 | $85 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landalucetennis · moneyline | Martin Landaluce | won | 53¢ · -113 | $122 | +84 |