value$715
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes
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Public evidence record
0x7164c6740057c4a7e7212e26c64ca0ab23f17ff7
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-2.3%72 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-0.9%$27,098 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-1.02%95 pre-event fillsSettlement record
32-39Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−9.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 72 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.4% to +12.8%
72 closed positions · 126 taker fills · $27,098 deployed
Typical position $294 (median) · closing line value measured over 95 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 86 sports · 14 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | won | 49¢ · +104 | $205 | +203 |
| 2026-08-16 | Game Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | won | 42¢ · +139 | $256 | +339 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Xtreme Gaming | lost | 42¢ · +136 | $215 | −215 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage |
| Vici Gaming |
| lost |
| 39¢ · +159 |
| $206 |
| −206 |
| 2026-08-15 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendesports · moneyline | Team WE | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $83 | −83 |
| 2026-08-15 | Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $206 | −206 |
| 2026-08-15 | Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | won | 39¢ · +157 | $103 | +153 |
| 2026-08-15 | Game Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | won | 41¢ · +146 | $51 | +72 |
| 2026-08-15 | Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)esports · map handicap | LGD Gaming | won | 47¢ · +113 | $103 | +110 |
| 2026-08-14 | Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $73 | — |
| 2026-07-26 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | won | 15¢ · +574 | $141 | — |
| 2026-07-21 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 22¢ · +346 | $174 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $21 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +18209 | $73 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 2¢ · +6059 | $61 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +21413 | $41 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | lost | 29¢ · +249 | $581 | −581 |
| 2026-07-18 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?soccer · soccer penalty shootout | Yes | lost | 20¢ · +398 | $395 | −395 |
| 2026-07-18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 18¢ · +441 | $1,023 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | France vs. England: Team to Winsoccer · soccer team to advance | England | won | 34¢ · +194 | $826 | +1,527 |
| 2026-07-08 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?esports · kill over under game | Over | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $664 | −664 |
| 2026-07-08 | Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $1,618 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?esports · kill over under game | Over | won | 43¢ · +132 | $509 | +653 |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?soccer · soccer penalty shootout | Yes | won | 19¢ · +426 | $205 | +848 |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Switzerland | won | 40¢ · +150 | $1,029 | +1,498 |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?soccer · soccer penalty shootout | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $82 | −82 |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | Yes | won | 42¢ · +138 | $610 | +818 |
| 2026-07-07 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | G2 Esports | won | 15¢ · +579 | $205 | +1,152 |
| 2026-07-07 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 44¢ · +130 | $915 | +1,151 |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 0.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 42¢ · +138 | $305 | +409 |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 37¢ · +170 | $408 | −408 |
| 2026-07-06 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | United States | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $1,926 | −1,926 |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Portugal | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $602 | −602 |
| 2026-07-06 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)esports · map handicap | FURIA Esports | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $614 | −614 |
| 2026-07-06 | LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | FURIA Esports | lost | 2¢ · +3967 | $62 | −62 |
| 2026-07-05 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England?soccer · soccer exact score | Yes | won | 2¢ · +5329 | $60 | — |
| 2026-07-05 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | England | won | 51¢ · -104 | $609 | +568 |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 15¢ · +565 | $103 | +562 |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 49¢ · +104 | $680 | +687 |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil vs. Norway · Spread Brazil (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Brazil | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $408 | −408 |
| 2026-07-05 | Games Total: O/U 3.5esports · totals | Over | lost | 25¢ · +299 | $307 | −307 |
| 2026-07-05 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)esports · map handicap | G2 Esports | lost | 27¢ · +274 | $204 | −204 |
| 2026-07-05 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?esports · kill over under game | Over | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $203 | −203 |
| 2026-07-05 | Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?esports · kill over under game | Over | won | 54¢ · -117 | $304 | +252 |
| 2026-07-04 | Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $103 | — |
| 2026-07-04 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Paraguay | won | 42¢ · +138 | $407 | +545 |
| 2026-07-04 | Will Malmo FF win on 2026-07-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 32¢ · +212 | $397 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | England vs. DR Congo · Spread England (-1.5)soccer · spreads | England | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $835 | −835 |
| 2026-06-30 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 44¢ · +127 | $153 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 48¢ · +108 | $203 | +214 |
| 2026-06-30 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 51¢ · -104 | $203 | +189 |
| 2026-06-29 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $113 | −113 |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 41¢ · +144 | $285 | +398 |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany vs. Paraguay · Spread Germany (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Germany | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $124 | −124 |
| 2026-06-28 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 58¢ · -138 | $304 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 9¢ · +1011 | $90 | −90 |
| 2026-06-28 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 3¢ · +2934 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-06-28 | South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 58¢ · -138 | $293 | +206 |
| 2026-06-28 | Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 46¢ · +118 | $1,226 | — |
| 2026-06-27 | DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan · Spread DR Congo (-1.5)soccer · spreads | DR Congo | won | 30¢ · +233 | $194 | +439 |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $203 | −203 |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama vs. England · Spread England (-2.5)soccer · spreads | England | lost | 45¢ · +122 | $203 | −203 |
| 2026-06-27 | Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 32¢ · +212 | $255 | — |
| 2026-06-27 | Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $390 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | New Zealand vs. Belgium · Spread Belgium (-2.5)soccer · spreads | Belgium | won | 44¢ · +127 | $485 | +599 |
| 2026-06-26 | Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 27¢ · +270 | $204 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 55¢ · -122 | $203 | +161 |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 42¢ · +138 | $509 | +682 |
| 2026-06-26 | Will United States win on 2026-06-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 21¢ · +376 | $205 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia?soccer · soccer exact score | Yes | lost | 17¢ · +489 | $594 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 33¢ · +207 | $681 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 36¢ · +178 | $397 | +686 |
| 2026-06-25 | Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)soccer · spreads | Netherlands | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $251 | −251 |
| 2026-06-25 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 18¢ · +446 | $309 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Korea Republic | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $306 | −306 |
| 2026-06-25 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 5¢ · +1941 | $103 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | Scotland vs. Brazil · Spread Brazil (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Brazil | won | 48¢ · +108 | $350 | +368 |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 45¢ · +122 | $160 | +190 |
| 2026-06-24 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar · Spread Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Qatar | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $724 | −724 |
| 2026-06-23 | Spread: Croatia (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Croatia | lost | 42¢ · +136 | $637 | −637 |
| 2026-06-23 | Colombia vs. DR Congo · Spread Colombia (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Colombia | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $204 | −204 |
| 2026-06-22 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 68¢ · -212 | $202 | — |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5soccer · soccer first half team totals | Over | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Halfsoccer · both teams to score first half | Yes | lost | 17¢ · +488 | $154 | −154 |
| 2026-06-22 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 52¢ · -108 | $401 | +359 |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina vs. Austria · Spread Argentina (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Argentina | won | 40¢ · +150 | $259 | +376 |
| 2026-06-12 | Map 1 Rounds Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Over | lost | 49¢ · +106 | $27 | −27 |
| 2026-06-12 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $1,014 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia?soccer · soccer exact score | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +816 | $1,345 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 38¢ · +163 | $611 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia?soccer · soccer exact score | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $308 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 69¢ · -223 | $1,903 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Legacy | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $509 | −509 |
| 2026-06-11 | Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5)esports · round handicap game 2 | Legacy | lost | 62¢ · -163 | $448 | −448 |
| 2026-06-11 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Cornerssoccer · total corners | Over | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $1,017 | −1,017 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Cornerssoccer · total corners | Over | lost | 51¢ · -106 | $1,015 | −1,015 |
| 2026-06-03 | Luxembourg vs. Italy · Spread Italy (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Italy | lost | 42¢ · +137 | $295 | −295 |
| 2026-05-29 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 26¢ · +285 | $300 | +854 |
| 2026-05-29 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $300 | −300 |
| 2026-05-06 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 37¢ · +172 | $300 | −47 |