Public evidence record

AnonDaveDave

0x98bc55f956a3ee72e1ee4c8b49a492533e36a1da

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 5, 2026

Source sync: Oct 5, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.9%76 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.2%$13,211 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.50%34 pre-event fills

Settlement record

44-21-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−1.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 76 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.1% to -0.8%

76 closed positions · 218 taker fills · $13,211 deployed

Typical position $70 (median) · closing line value measured over 34 pre-event fills · 2% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

9 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$974

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?

Yes

entry 90¢ · -894now 97¢ · -3674+7.4 pts

Open

value$424

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?

No

entry 68¢ · -212now 64¢ · -178−4.0 pts

Open

value$1210

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 54¢ · -115now 71¢ · -239+16.9 pts

Open

value$738

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 27¢ · +273now 56¢ · -130+29.7 pts

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 51 sports · 49 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETNon-sports	Down	won	63¢ · -170	$26	+14
2026-10-04	Patriots vs. Billsfootball · moneyline	Bills	lost	74¢ · -285	$300	−20
2026-10-04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETNon-sports	Down	won	97¢ · -3233	$50	+1
2026-10-04	Flames vs. Canuckshockey · moneyline