Public evidence record

0xb1ed…8168

0xb1edf847a994229d2c7fef1090077cf4920c8168

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 5, 2026

Source sync: Oct 3, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.4%98 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.0%$6,487 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.96%80 pre-event fills

Settlement record

43-48Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−8.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 98 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -18.2% to +5.5%

98 closed positions · 156 taker fills · $6,487 deployed

Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 80 pre-event fills · 27% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$18

Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Yes

entry 0¢now 0¢+0.2 pts

Open

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 94 sports · 6 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-02	Combo: Steelers — Steelers vs. Browns + Over — Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 37.5football · combo	—	lost	31¢ · +222	$50	−50
2026-09-29	Canadiens vs. Maple Leafshockey · moneyline	Canadiens	won	50¢ · -100	$103	+98
2026-09-28	Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 42.5football · totals	Over	lost	50¢ · -100	$50	−50
2026-09-28	Eagles vs. Bearsfootball · moneyline