Public evidence record

loag

0xca50a87f4f67f3ae390e53dabfc32b68c6047691

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.1%94 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$8,477 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.87%111 pre-event fills

Settlement record

53-39-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−3.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 94 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.0% to +2.7%

94 closed positions · 117 taker fills · $8,477 deployed

Typical position $29 (median) · closing line value measured over 111 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$111

Dana White's Contender Series: Damian Piwowarczyk vs. Emilio Quissua (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Damian Piwowarczyk

entry 51¢ · -104now 56¢ · -130+5.5 pts

Open

value$356

Clavicular sentenced to prison?

No

entry 90¢ · -899now 92¢ · -1076+1.5 pts

Open

value$2

Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?

Yes

entry 72¢ · -257now 17¢ · +488−55.0 pts

Open

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 70 sports · 30 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-19	UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims)mma · moneyline	Joanderson Brito	won	78¢ · -353	$210	+57
2026-09-16	Spread: SF (-12.5)football · spreads	SF	won	50¢ · -100	$103	+98
2026-09-15	Spread: Ravens (-7.5)football · spreads	Ravens	lost	52¢ · -108	$113	−113
2026-09-14	Dana White's Contender Series: Oscar Ravello vs. Igor Cavalcanti (Middleweight, Main Card)