Public evidence record

0x00c8…9ccd

0x00c8ef6895e2fb38b538cac8c08edd6b82289ccd

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-15.9%1,677 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.7%$703,041 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.13%3,808 pre-event fills

Settlement record

649-943-6Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−115.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,677 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -20.4% to -11.4%

1,677 closed positions · 8,616 taker fills · $703,041 deployed

Typical position $51 (median) · closing line value measured over 3,808 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$732

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Yes

entry 19¢ · +422now 7¢ · +1438−12.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer908 closed363–499-14.0%
Tennis232 closed84–136–6-12.7%
Esports213 closed83–120-14.2%
Baseball194 closed74–112-9.7%
Basketball79 closed35–41-6.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 0 sports · 100 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ETNon-sports	Up	won	98¢ · -4900	$5	+0
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ETNon-sports	Down	won	71¢ · -245	$2	+1
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETNon-sports	Down	won	64¢ · -178	$2	+1
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET