Public evidence record

0x041b…d3eb

0x041b6a51314b2edda4ad494b0d73c55fefaed3eb

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-8.8%1,932 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.9%$413,051 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.26%900 pre-event fills

Settlement record

626-836-12Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−128.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,932 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.5% to -5.1%

1,932 closed positions · 3,579 taker fills · $413,051 deployed

Typical position $195 (median) · closing line value measured over 900 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$78

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs

Team Spirit

entry 56¢ · -127now 79¢ · -365+22.5 pts

Open

value$78

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

Team Spirit

entry 48¢ · +108now 93¢ · -1329+45.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports1,025 closed350–403–9-4.8%
Soccer255 closed78–141-11.3%
Basketball205 closed57–99-9.9%
Tennis199 closed82–79–3-7.9%
Baseball143 closed33–57-9.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-02	Combo: Yes — Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC København: Both Teams to Score + Yes — US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score + No — Will IF Gnistan win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-11-02? + No — Will Bravo Ljubljana win on 2026-11-02?soccer · combo	—	lost	10¢ · +863	$153	−153
2026-11-02	Combo: Yes — Bravo Ljubljana vs. FC Koper: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Vaasan Palloseura vs. HJK Helsinki: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC København end in a draw? + Yes — Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will FC Koper win on 2026-11-02?soccer · combo	—	lost	7¢ · +1370	$15	−15
2026-11-02	Combo: Yes — Bravo Ljubljana vs. FC Koper: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. FC København: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Vaasan Palloseura vs. HJK Helsinki: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-11-02? + Yes — Will FC Koper win on 2026-11-02?