Public evidence record

geegraph

0x046025d8d36f6af5fc3381a5168c8505604e7137

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.1%447 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.0%$17,410 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.42%279 pre-event fills

Settlement record

205-237-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−28.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 447 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -14.4% to +2.1%

447 closed positions · 542 taker fills · $17,410 deployed

Typical position $33 (median) · closing line value measured over 279 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

6 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$5

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

No

entry 10¢ · +927now 2¢ · +5028−7.8 pts

Open

value$20

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 12¢ · +748now 9¢ · +958−2.3 pts

Open

value$35

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Yes

entry 21¢ · +380now 17¢ · +488−3.8 pts

Open

value$4

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 40¢ · +151now 5¢ · +1920−34.9 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball254 closed128–124-2.5%
Soccer66 closed25–41-7.4%
Football51 closed23–28-7.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Combo: Yes — Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score + No — Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?soccer · combo	—	lost	52¢ · -108	$50	−50
2026-09-20	Combo: Under — O/U 1.5 Rounds + Arman Tsarukyan — UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) + Ryan Gandra — UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)mma · combo	—	won	53¢ · -112	$100	+85
2026-09-20	Combo: LSU — LSU vs. Ole Miss + Louisville — SMU vs. Louisvillefootball · combo	—	lost	32¢ · +213	$38	−38