Public evidence record

geegraph

0x046025d8d36f6af5fc3381a5168c8505604e7137

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-8.5%603 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-6.2%$29,854 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.55%444 pre-event fills

Settlement record

271-327-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−48.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 603 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -15.7% to -1.2%

603 closed positions · 712 taker fills · $29,854 deployed

Typical position $42 (median) · closing line value measured over 444 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$9

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 12¢ · +748now 4¢ · +2339−7.7 pts

Open

value$34

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Yes

entry 21¢ · +380now 17¢ · +506−4.3 pts

Open

value$52

Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?

Yes

entry 14¢ · +615now 14¢ · +590+0.5 pts

Open

value$29

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Yes

entry 25¢ · +300now 14¢ · +590−10.5 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball289 closed141–146-4.4%
Football122 closed54–68-9.2%
Soccer75 closed25–50-10.5%
MMA73 closed36–37-3.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	James Madison vs. Southern Miss · Spread James Madison (-14.5)football · spreads	Southern Miss	lost	55¢ · -122	$65	−65
2026-11-06	James Madison vs. Southern Miss · Spread James Madison (-13.5)football · spreads	Southern Miss	lost	49¢ · +104	$52	−52
2026-11-05	Ball State vs. UMass · Spread UMass (-3.5)football · spreads	Ball State	won	43¢ · +133	$102	+131
2026-11-04	Spread: Pistons (-1.5)basketball · spreads	Pistons	lost