Public evidence record

Michael.Williams

0x06122c3506c411e8ca15a12100d7f738b855559a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.3%1,794 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.2%$159,357 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.09%1,729 pre-event fills

Settlement record

875-793-26Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−48.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,794 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.5% to +0.9%

1,794 closed positions · 2,041 taker fills · $159,357 deployed

Typical position $78 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,729 pre-event fills · 30% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$159

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Yes

entry 59¢ · -144now 99¢ · -9424+40.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball686 closed317–324-4.4%
Esports387 closed219–148–8-1.4%
Tennis386 closed180–168–18-1.7%
Basketball164 closed80–72-4.2%
Soccer105 closed50–48-8.6%
Hockey51 closed22–25-5.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 77 sports · 23 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-16	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5baseball · totals	Under	lost	52¢ · -108	$92	−92
2026-09-16	San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5baseball · totals	Under	lost	52¢ · -108	$92	−92
2026-09-16	FC Barcelona vs. Real Racing Club · Spread FC Barcelona (-3.5)soccer · spreads	Real Racing Club	lost	56¢ · -127	$112	−112
2026-09-16	Caldas da Rainha: Francisca Jorge vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva