Public evidence record

ButterTheDog

0x12305df59cfb41500b5a6f81c8b8d82b45bfc70b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+4.1%1,440 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.8%$75,897 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.69%413 pre-event fills

Settlement record

204-394-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−60.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,440 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: +0.4% to +7.8%

1,440 closed positions · 3,154 taker fills · $75,897 deployed

Typical position $30 (median) · closing line value measured over 413 pre-event fills · 23% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$80

Atlético San Luis vs. Club Tijuana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners

Over

entry 44¢ · +127now 50¢ · -100+6.0 pts

Open

value$4

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs

Inner Circle Esports

entry 52¢ · -108now 68¢ · -208+15.5 pts

Open

value$2

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16?

Yes

entry 40¢ · +150now 39¢ · +160−1.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis492 closed68–122–1+0.5%
Esports439 closed45–122–1-0.3%
Baseball305 closed48–82+7.9%
Soccer173 closed39–56–1-1.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	57¢ · -133	$50	—
2026-09-20	Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5soccer · totals	Over	lost	42¢ · +138	$45	−45
2026-09-20	Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Soxbaseball · moneyline	Detroit Tigers	lost	48¢ · +108	$50	−50
2026-09-20	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	exited	44¢ · +127