Public evidence record

AmericaFirst1

0x154ca10dfee317dcfb9337788db7da858cba658e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.7%4,038 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+2.4%$779,193 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-3.00%6,720 pre-event fills

Settlement record

2273-1732-25Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−150.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 4,038 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.5% to -3.0%

4,038 closed positions · 24,944 taker fills · $779,193 deployed

Typical position $47 (median) · closing line value measured over 6,720 pre-event fills · 2% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$969

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 79¢ · -385now 42¢ · +137−37.3 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football1,600 closed737–860–3-6.1%
Esports1,073 closed681–369–17-3.6%
Basketball448 closed236–209–2-14.9%
Soccer406 closed301–104-1.0%
Tennis230 closed147–81–2-6.4%
Hockey186 closed106–80-1.9%
Baseball92 closed64–28-6.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-07	South Florida vs. East Carolinafootball · moneyline	South Florida	lost	40¢ · +153	$562	−562
2026-11-07	South Florida vs. East Carolinafootball · moneyline	East Carolina	won	49¢ · +104	$1,046	+1,052
2026-11-07	South Florida vs. East Carolina · Spread East Carolina (-7.5)football · spreads	South Florida	won	67¢ · -203	$50	+24
2026-11-07	South Florida vs. East Carolina · Spread East Carolina (-2.5)football · spreads	South Florida	lost