Public evidence record

autistocrat

0x1ca398b4627e086322ce5ecb2932f64c47d49613

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.3%1,201 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.2%$232,409 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.84%180 pre-event fills

Settlement record

645-399-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−55.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,201 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.8% to -1.8%

1,201 closed positions · 2,572 taker fills · $232,409 deployed

Typical position $100 (median) · closing line value measured over 180 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$585

Dota 2: Two Move vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

Yellow Submarine

entry 65¢ · -183now 100¢+35.3 pts

Open

value$432

San Diego 2: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith

Colton Smith

entry 80¢ · -400now 100¢+20.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis366 closed196–116–1-3.1%
Baseball356 closed196–111-5.5%
Esports234 closed117–89–2-7.4%
Soccer178 closed97–64-7.2%
Basketball57 closed33–17-4.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline	1win	won	48¢ · +108	$48	+50
2026-09-21	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	Pipsqueak+4	lost	46¢ · +117	$95	−95
2026-09-21	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Cobra - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	Aurora	won	81¢ · -414	$350	+80
2026-09-21	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner