Public evidence record

bitterfish

0x1cd24cc49782240413903b4b7e7694779f917f85

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.2%482 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-7.1%$585,904 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.78%77 pre-event fills

Settlement record

332-127Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−25.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 482 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.4% to -0.9%

482 closed positions · 745 taker fills · $585,904 deployed

Typical position $1,006 (median) · closing line value measured over 77 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

13 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$44963

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?

No

entry 54¢ · -119now 98¢ · -3982+43.2 pts

Open

value$10491

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?

No

entry 66¢ · -194now 64¢ · -174−2.5 pts

Open

value$6512

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

No

entry 73¢ · -275now 53¢ · -113−20.3 pts

Open

value$2254

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?

No

entry 82¢ · -458now 19¢ · +441−63.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer178 closed145–29-2.5%
Tennis129 closed86–38-6.3%
Esports87 closed42–39-9.5%
Baseball76 closed50–18-5.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-15	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?Non-sports	No	lost	39¢ · +159	$19,287	−16,533
2026-09-07	Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5baseball · totals	Under	lost	61¢ · -156	$622	−622
2026-09-06	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5baseball · totals	Under	lost	67¢ · -203	$2,033	−2,033
2026-09-06	Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5