Public evidence record

0x1fb5…cabd

0x1fb5d3ba3e6a72f098fb9cf5fe5e08ff1f4ccabd

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 8, 2026

Source sync: Oct 8, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.2%107 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.6%$20,640 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.76%112 pre-event fills

Settlement record

49-41Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−8.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 107 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.1% to +4.7%

107 closed positions · 230 taker fills · $20,640 deployed

Typical position $200 (median) · closing line value measured over 112 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$3146

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

No

entry 66¢ · -198now 64¢ · -174−3.0 pts

Open

value$2443

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 50¢ · -101now 55¢ · -123+5.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer51 closed25–19-4.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 61 sports · 39 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-07	Mexico vs. Chile: O/U 1.5soccer · totals	Under	lost	64¢ · -178	$199	−199
2026-10-07	Panthers vs. Kingshockey · moneyline	Panthers	won	52¢ · -108	$214	+188
2026-09-24	Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbaseball · nrfi	No	lost	60¢ · -149	$284	−207
2026-08-27	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?