Public evidence record

nikson8

0x21f52494cdecc2b9ba03aad69f57c87ae798c161

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.8%663 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+5.1%$372,116 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.80%391 pre-event fills

Settlement record

246-371-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−24.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 663 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.6% to +4.1%

663 closed positions · 1,786 taker fills · $372,116 deployed

Typical position $397 (median) · closing line value measured over 391 pre-event fills · 9% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer250 closed94–145-1.8%
Esports181 closed72–94–1-9.8%
Basketball139 closed42–82-2.4%
Baseball69 closed31–35-1.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-05	Jazz vs. Nuggetsbasketball · moneyline	Nuggets	lost	29¢ · +244	$1,512	−1,512
2026-10-05	Warriors vs. Clippersbasketball · moneyline	Warriors	lost	24¢ · +316	$1,195	−1,195
2026-10-01	Sacramento Republic FC vs. Las Vegas Lights: 1st Half O/U 1.5soccer · first half totals	Over	won	38¢ · +165	$412	+635
2026-10-01	Sacramento Republic FC leading at halftime?