Public evidence record

nikson8

0x21f52494cdecc2b9ba03aad69f57c87ae798c161

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.0%643 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+6.7%$354,671 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.53%327 pre-event fills

Settlement record

238-359-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−25.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 643 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.9% to +3.9%

643 closed positions · 1,729 taker fills · $354,671 deployed

Typical position $379 (median) · closing line value measured over 327 pre-event fills · 9% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer235 closed86–138-3.4%
Esports181 closed72–94–1-9.4%
Basketball137 closed42–80-1.7%
Baseball68 closed31–34-1.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-09	Will Nashville SC win on 2026-09-09?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	49¢ · +104	$3,023	—
2026-09-07	Tala'ea El Gaish SC leading at halftime?soccer · soccer halftime result	Yes	lost	30¢ · +235	$518	—
2026-09-07	Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-09-07?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	39¢ · +155	$4,122	—
2026-09-07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?