Public evidence record

GraveTrout11

0x25a48f619787ee2be14bf9f48bc255b7a7be2694

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 5, 2026

Source sync: Oct 4, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.1%130 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.0%$84,722 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.54%113 pre-event fills

Settlement record

65-45Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−10.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 130 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.8% to +3.7%

130 closed positions · 332 taker fills · $84,722 deployed

Typical position $233 (median) · closing line value measured over 113 pre-event fills · 3% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$28

Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)

JD Gaming

entry 64¢ · -178now 62¢ · -160−2.5 pts

Open

value$8

Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)

Natus Vincere

entry 30¢ · +229now 32¢ · +217+1.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports120 closed63–39-3.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 39 sports · 61 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-04	Combo: LGD Gaming — LoL: LGD Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage + LYON — LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs + KT Rolster — LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs KT Rolster (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage + BNK FEARX — LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stageesports · combo	—	won	29¢ · +242	$4	+10
2026-09-29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ETNon-sports	Up	lost	36¢ · +178	$31	−31
2026-09-29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ETNon-sports	Up	won	86¢ · -603	$27	+4