Public evidence record

smarturn1

0x264bf42e23a945a38a0c9251f8197cb3be2fcf7f

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 9, 2026

Source sync: Oct 9, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.3%177 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+2.5%$12,804 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.30%167 pre-event fills

Settlement record

68-102Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−15.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 177 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.9% to +5.3%

177 closed positions · 343 taker fills · $12,804 deployed

Typical position $51 (median) · closing line value measured over 167 pre-event fills · 14% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$2

Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes

entry 4¢ · +2400now 0¢−3.6 pts

Open

value$35

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Yes

entry 13¢ · +670now 5¢ · +2122−8.5 pts

Open

value$161

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 17¢ · +485now 25¢ · +308+7.4 pts

Open

value$107

Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 21¢ · +377now 23¢ · +344+1.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer142 closed49–89-10.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-09	Combo: Under — Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 + Buccaneers — Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)football · combo	—	won	27¢ · +272	$30	+78
2026-10-09	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 42.5football · totals	Under	won	27¢ · +270	$51	+134
2026-10-09	Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)football · spreads	Cowboys	lost	33¢ · +203	$82	−82
2026-10-06	Falcons vs. Saints · Spread Saints (-2.5)