Public evidence record

0x292b…697d

0x292bacc7febae547bdbddec8139c403fe4dd697d

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.8%247 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.8%$25,114 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.08%244 pre-event fills

Settlement record

134-113Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−17.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 247 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -15.4% to +1.8%

247 closed positions · 412 taker fills · $25,114 deployed

Typical position $101 (median) · closing line value measured over 244 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$22

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +1012now 4¢ · +2400−5.0 pts

Open

value$54

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Yes

entry 48¢ · +108now 14¢ · +590−33.5 pts

Open

value$17

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Yes

entry 19¢ · +427now 10¢ · +953−9.5 pts

Open

value$18

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Yes

entry 36¢ · +174now 14¢ · +641−23.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer114 closed56–58-7.1%
Baseball100 closed57–43-6.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-08-27	Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Metsbaseball · moneyline	Milwaukee Brewers	won	65¢ · -186	$106	+48
2026-08-27	Will there be a run scored in the first inning? · Spread Minnesota Twins (-3.5)baseball · spreads	Athletics	won	96¢ · -2400	$104	−0
2026-08-26	Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)baseball · spreads	Pittsburgh Pirates	lost	63¢ · -170	$106	−106
2026-08-26	Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels