Public evidence record

0x294b…22d2

0x294b241f8b97845803fe34a9b99629e07cd422d2

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.0%2,777 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.3%$182,369 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+0.94%1,426 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1332-1354-81Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−91.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,777 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -6.6% to +0.7%

2,777 closed positions · 3,400 taker fills · $182,369 deployed

Typical position $59 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,426 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$585

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

entry 20¢ · +406now 46¢ · +120+25.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports2,092 closed1029–1022–37-3.7%
Tennis530 closed232–248–44-0.1%
Baseball146 closed68–78-6.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-23	LoL: CITA Kaizen vs The Otter Side - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	The Otter Side	won	62¢ · -163	$51	+30
2026-09-23	LoL: CITA Kaizen vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Besports · moneyline	The Otter Side	won	62¢ · -163	$51	+30
2026-09-23	St. Tropez: Titouan Droguet vs Borna Gojotennis · moneyline	Titouan Droguet	won	63¢ · -170	$51	+28
2026-09-23	Counter-Strike: Ryvex vs maybe (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #7 Group Desports · moneyline	maybe	lost