Public evidence record

0x2b45…d5f4

0x2b4550b35e6827942995c26736b9e09a4b47d5f4

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.0%898 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.9%$116,748 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.62%376 pre-event fills

Settlement record

716-130-11Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−30.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 898 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -5.2% to +1.1%

898 closed positions · 1,446 taker fills · $116,748 deployed

Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 376 pre-event fills · 16% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$13

Netherlands vs. Germany: O/U 6.5

Under

entry 94¢ · -1651now 88¢ · -733−6.3 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer503 closed446–33–1-2.3%
Esports173 closed105–54–7-4.1%
Basketball107 closed77–23-1.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-23	Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5soccer · totals	Under	won	92¢ · -1150	$18	+1
2026-09-23	Spread: Tajikistan (-1.5)soccer · spreads	Azerbaijan	won	94¢ · -1567	$17	+1
2026-09-23	Will Italy win on 2026-09-23?soccer · moneyline	No	won	91¢ · -1011	$15	—
2026-09-23	Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Acesbasketball · moneyline	Las Vegas Aces	won	96¢ · -2339	$15