Public evidence record

0x2bde…ecba

0x2bdea27111b606551a1d3c19c0e8c73e0081ecba

Not ranked. median stake under $25 (typical position $20.00). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.3%662 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.6%$85,489 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.66%1,416 pre-event fills

Settlement record

516-138Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−15.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 662 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -5.7% to +1.2%

662 closed positions · 7,241 taker fills · $85,489 deployed

Typical position $20 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,416 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 93¢ · -1427now 97¢ · -2757+3.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer263 closed229–34-3.1%
Tennis188 closed127–55-4.0%
Basketball100 closed83–16-4.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 87 sports · 13 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liutennis · moneyline	Claire Liu	won	93¢ · -1329	$496	+33
2026-11-06	Taipei: Yosuke Watanuki vs Alexandre Mullertennis · moneyline	Alexandre Muller	lost	43¢ · +133	$21	−21
2026-11-06	Taipei: Jan Kumstat vs Harold Mayottennis · moneyline	Jan Kumstat	won	40¢ · +151	$21	+30
2026-11-06	Magic vs. Suns