Public evidence record

pandamanbro

0x2d538568b3b17b53bcb6d721a02dc949d072e7aa

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.1%356 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+15.7%$15,513 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.84%329 pre-event fills

Settlement record

180-168-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−17.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 356 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.5% to +6.3%

356 closed positions · 490 taker fills · $15,513 deployed

Typical position $30 (median) · closing line value measured over 329 pre-event fills · 7% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$48

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No

entry 61¢ · -158now 74¢ · -277+12.3 pts

Open

value$33

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

entry 61¢ · -156now 41¢ · +147−20.5 pts

Open

value$140

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 49¢ · +105now 56¢ · -128+7.3 pts

Open

value$45

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

No

entry 70¢ · -233now 90¢ · -852+19.5 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball139 closed72–67-4.0%
Basketball73 closed41–29+2.0%
Tennis63 closed34–26–3-3.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 93 sports · 7 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-06	Combo: FENNEL — LoL: FENNEL vs New Meta (BO5) - LJL Playoffs + Invictus Gaming — LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs + T1 — LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffsesports · combo	—	won	58¢ · -138	$20	+14
2026-09-06	Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Non-sports	Yes	lost	7¢ · +1378	$4	—
2026-09-06	Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Non-sports	Yes	lost	7¢ · +1233	$5	—
2026-09-06