Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
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Public evidence record
0x2e72c799b9a56de3b09ae99d50cec7902797c55f
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-0.3%468 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
+0.9%$21,751 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-1.28%586 pre-event fillsSettlement record
244-212-3Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−14.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 468 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.9% to +7.3%
468 closed positions · 708 taker fills · $21,751 deployed
Typical position $36 (median) · closing line value measured over 586 pre-event fills · 10% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
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Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 91 sports · 9 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Under | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $19 | −19 |
| 2026-09-02 | Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-07-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 60¢ · -150 | $46 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-07-25?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $13 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
| won |
| 55¢ · -122 |
| $35 |
| +27 |
| 2026-09-01 | New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | won | 63¢ · -170 | $48 | +27 |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubsbaseball · moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers | won | 46¢ · +117 | $25 | +28 |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-03?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 45¢ · +122 | $31 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-09-03?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $19 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 27¢ · +270 | $12 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-09-03?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $22 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-09-01?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $9 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-09-01?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 46¢ · +117 | $14 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will LASK Linz win on 2026-09-01?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 71¢ · -240 | $33 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Wolfsberger AC win on 2026-09-01?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 14¢ · +614 | $7 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Sheffield United FC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $12 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-01?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 59¢ · -144 | $28 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Angels | won | 46¢ · +117 | $25 | +28 |
| 2026-08-31 | Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twinsbaseball · moneyline | Detroit Tigers | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $25 | −25 |
| 2026-08-31 | Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Soxbaseball · moneyline | Boston Red Sox | won | 60¢ · -150 | $42 | +27 |
| 2026-08-31 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | lost | 65¢ · -186 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Fortaleza EC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 28¢ · +257 | $14 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-08-31?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-09-02?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-09-02?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $16 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-08-31?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 72¢ · -257 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Academia Anzoategui FC win on 2026-08-31?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 10¢ · +900 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twinsbaseball · moneyline | Chicago White Sox | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-08-30 | Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbaseball · moneyline | Seattle Mariners | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $36 | −36 |
| 2026-08-30 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankeesbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | won | 47¢ · +113 | $26 | +28 |
| 2026-08-30 | Will SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 26¢ · +285 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-08-30?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 54¢ · -117 | $20 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-08-30?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 71¢ · -245 | $32 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | won | 69¢ · -220 | $60 | +26 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twinsbaseball · moneyline | Chicago White Sox | won | 46¢ · +117 | $25 | +28 |
| 2026-08-29 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-08-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 12¢ · +733 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-08-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 71¢ · -245 | $33 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-08-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $28 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 22¢ · +355 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-08-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-29 | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-08-29?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 63¢ · -170 | $23 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbaseball · moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays | won | 59¢ · -144 | $41 | +27 |
| 2026-08-28 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5baseball · totals | Over | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $25 | −25 |
| 2026-08-28 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 58¢ · -138 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5baseball · totals | Over | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $27 | −27 |
| 2026-08-23 | Will CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 27¢ · +270 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-24?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ETNon-sports | Down | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $22 | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 46¢ · +117 | $25 | +28 |
| 2026-08-22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ETNon-sports | Up | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $31 | −31 |
| 2026-08-22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ETNon-sports | Down | won | 88¢ · -733 | $44 | +6 |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 26¢ · +285 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $23 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Albacete Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 27¢ · +270 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 15¢ · +567 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 66¢ · -194 | $25 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ETNon-sports | Down | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $17 | −13 |
| 2026-08-21 | Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline | Minnesota Twins | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-08-21 | Will Juventus FC win on 2026-08-23?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 67¢ · -203 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-08-23?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 51¢ · -104 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Will Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $13 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royalsbaseball · moneyline | Kansas City Royals | won | 48¢ · +108 | $26 | +27 |
| 2026-08-20 | New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxbaseball · moneyline | Chicago White Sox | won | 56¢ · -127 | $37 | +28 |
| 2026-08-20 | New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesbaseball · moneyline | Baltimore Orioles | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-08-20 | Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 34¢ · +194 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-08-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-08-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $30 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 30¢ · +233 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Atlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparksbasketball · moneyline | Atlanta Dream | won | 79¢ · -376 | $30 | +8 |
| 2026-08-20 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 69¢ · -223 | $27 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 12¢ · +733 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 72¢ · -257 | $32 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 11¢ · +809 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ETNon-sports | Up | won | 58¢ · -138 | $29 | +21 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ETNon-sports | Down | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $20 | −20 |
| 2026-08-16 | XRP Up or Down - August 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETNon-sports | Down | lost | 7¢ · +1329 | $2 | −2 |
| 2026-08-16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ETNon-sports | Down | exited | 27¢ · +270 | $14 | −2 |
| 2026-08-16 | Solana Up or Down - August 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ETNon-sports | Up | exited | 47¢ · +113 | $3 | +0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger-Aliassimetennis · moneyline | Felix Auger-Aliassime | won | 55¢ · -122 | $34 | +26 |
| 2026-08-16 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubsbaseball · moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals | won | 38¢ · +163 | $18 | +28 |
| 2026-08-16 | Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbaseball · moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates | won | 47¢ · +113 | $26 | +28 |
| 2026-08-16 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 54¢ · -117 | $33 | +27 |
| 2026-08-16 | Will Mantova 1911 win on 2026-08-16?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 9¢ · +1011 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-16 | Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-08-16?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-16 | Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-08-16?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-16 | Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-08-16?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 68¢ · -213 | $27 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | Texas Rangers | lost | 59¢ · -144 | $41 | −41 |
| 2026-08-13 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 48¢ · +108 | $27 | +28 |
| 2026-08-13 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubsbaseball · moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals | lost | 38¢ · +163 | $18 | −18 |
| 2026-08-13 | Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-08-13?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-13?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 70¢ · -233 | $27 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-08-15?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-08-15?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 71¢ · -245 | $30 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Catania FC win on 2026-08-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 9¢ · +1011 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-08-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 76¢ · -317 | $34 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will SS Arezzo win on 2026-08-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-08-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 68¢ · -212 | $27 | — |