value$225
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No
Open
Loading this page’s records…
Loading this page’s records…
Public evidence record
0x3832289e6aca6b9444f6d9a4a2a8392f434535e1
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-1.1%375 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
+0.6%$124,687 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-2.05%353 pre-event fillsSettlement record
186-165-2Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−30.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 375 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.8% to +6.6%
375 closed positions · 719 taker fills · $124,687 deployed
Typical position $253 (median) · closing line value measured over 353 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)
Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 72 sports · 28 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Spread: Jaguars (-19.5)football · spreads | Ravens | lost | 50¢ · +100 | $355 | −355 |
| 2026-11-06 | Spread: Jaguars (-20.5)football · spreads | Ravens | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $355 | −67 |
| 2026-11-06 | Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)football · spreads | Ravens | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $507 | −507 |
| 2026-11-06 | Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)football · spreads |
Raiders vs. Jets
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5
Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
| Ravens |
| lost |
| 52¢ · -107 |
| $406 |
| −406 |
| 2026-11-05 | Ball State vs. UMass · Spread Ball State (-2.5)football · spreads | UMass | won | 51¢ · -104 | $152 | +142 |
| 2026-11-04 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 53¢ · -114 | $2,289 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $1,955 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 65¢ · -187 | $811 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | exited | 69¢ · -222 | $709 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 65¢ · -189 | $659 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 66¢ · -196 | $1,115 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNon-sports | Yes | lost | 21¢ · +382 | $307 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Ducks vs. Canuckshockey · moneyline | Ducks | won | 64¢ · -178 | $356 | +191 |
| 2026-11-04 | Ball State vs. UMass · Spread UMass (-2.5)football · spreads | UMass | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $405 | −405 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 43¢ · +132 | $1,023 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 61¢ · -157 | $2,249 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +12195 | $109 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +8233 | $73 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 2¢ · +5556 | $68 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +14186 | $10 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +33233 | $10 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +74576 | $10 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +38567 | $21 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +72766 | $21 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $10 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | lost | 29¢ · +251 | $900 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 10¢ · +902 | $83 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +31382 | $26 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +16001 | $36 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +6645 | $36 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 3¢ · +3348 | $31 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Combo: Sharks — Flames vs. Sharks + Liberty — Spread: Liberty (-16.5)multi sport · combo | — | lost | 28¢ · +252 | $250 | −250 |
| 2026-11-03 | Spread: Bears (-6.5)football · spreads | Seahawks | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $405 | −405 |
| 2026-11-03 | Spread: Bears (-3.5)football · spreads | Seahawks | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $405 | −405 |
| 2026-11-03 | Flames vs. Sharkshockey · moneyline | Sharks | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $809 | −809 |
| 2026-11-03 | Spread: Bears (-2.5)football · spreads | Seahawks | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $608 | −608 |
| 2026-11-02 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNon-sports | Yes | won | 71¢ · -245 | $506 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 30¢ · +228 | $565 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Eagles (-5.5)football · spreads | Commanders | won | 56¢ · -127 | $659 | +418 |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Commanders (-2.5)football · spreads | Commanders | won | 54¢ · -117 | $11 | +9 |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)football · spreads | Broncos | won | 54¢ · -117 | $304 | +251 |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Patriots (-3.5)football · spreads | Patriots | exited | 57¢ · -133 | $709 | +518 |
| 2026-11-02 | Combo: Broncos — Chiefs vs. Broncos + Patriots — Spread: Patriots (-5.5) + Under — Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5football · combo | — | lost | 16¢ · +512 | $275 | −275 |
| 2026-11-02 | Combo: Patriots — Spread: Patriots (-4.5) + Steelers — Browns vs. Steelers + Under — Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5 + Lions — Vikings vs. Lions + Jaguars — Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)football · combo | — | lost | 9¢ · +962 | $229 | −229 |
| 2026-11-02 | Combo: Patriots — Spread: Patriots (-5.5) + Under — Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5football · combo | — | lost | 30¢ · +238 | $351 | −351 |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Patriots (-5.5)football · spreads | Patriots | lost | 57¢ · -134 | $1,165 | −430 |
| 2026-11-02 | Spread: Commanders (-4.5)football · spreads | Commanders | won | 54¢ · -117 | $507 | +419 |
| 2026-11-02 | Combo: Patriots — Spread: Patriots (-5.5) + Chargers — Spread: Rams (-7.5) + Steelers — Spread: Steelers (-2.5)football · combo | — | lost | 19¢ · +414 | $150 | −150 |
| 2026-11-02 | Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5football · totals | Under | exited | 56¢ · -127 | $355 | +28 |
| 2026-11-01 | Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5football · totals | Under | exited | 58¢ · -136 | $787 | −655 |
| 2026-11-01 | Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5football · totals | Under | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $355 | −355 |
| 2026-11-01 | Titans vs. Bengalsfootball · moneyline | Bengals | won | 64¢ · -178 | $354 | +193 |
| 2026-11-01 | Combo: Yes — Spread: Steelers (-2.5) + Yes — Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)football · combo | — | exited | 38¢ · +160 | $425 | +647 |
| 2026-11-01 | Combo: No — Vikings vs. Lions + Yes — Spread: Steelers (-2.5) + Yes — Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)football · combo | — | exited | 24¢ · +321 | $350 | +1,070 |
| 2026-11-01 | Combo: Yes — Spread: TCU (-4.5) + No — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5 + Yes — Spread: Steelers (-2.5)football · combo | — | exited | 20¢ · +405 | $300 | +1,155 |
| 2026-11-01 | Combo: No — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5 + Yes — Spread: Steelers (-2.5)football · combo | — | exited | 36¢ · +180 | $450 | +770 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Rams (-7.5)football · spreads | Chargers | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $506 | −193 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)football · spreads | Jaguars | exited | 64¢ · -178 | $404 | +220 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Steelers (-2.5)football · spreads | Steelers | won | 59¢ · -146 | $1,063 | +702 |
| 2026-11-01 | Combo: Over — Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5 + Under — Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5football · combo | — | lost | 31¢ · +221 | $200 | −200 |
| 2026-11-01 | Vikings vs. Lionsfootball · moneyline | Lions | won | 55¢ · -122 | $405 | +292 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Vikings (-1.5)football · spreads | Lions | won | 54¢ · -118 | $355 | +259 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Raiders (-3.5)football · spreads | Jets | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $406 | −406 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Bengals (-4.5)football · spreads | Bengals | won | 56¢ · -127 | $405 | +309 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Bills (-3.5)football · spreads | Ravens | lost | 56¢ · -129 | $709 | −227 |
| 2026-11-01 | Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5football · totals | Over | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $304 | −304 |
| 2026-11-01 | Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5football · totals | Over | lost | 58¢ · -141 | $861 | −552 |
| 2026-10-31 | Combo: Penn State — Spread: Penn State (-8.5) + Under — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · combo | — | won | 32¢ · +217 | $400 | +827 |
| 2026-10-31 | Raiders vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $406 | −406 |
| 2026-10-31 | Combo: Minnesota — Spread: Indiana (-21.5) + Under — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · combo | — | won | 29¢ · +241 | $700 | −32 |
| 2026-10-31 | Combo: Cincinnati — Spread: Utah (-8.5) + Georgia — Spread: Georgia (-10.5) + Minnesota — Spread: Indiana (-21.5) + Under — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · combo | — | lost | 9¢ · +1033 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Penn State (-8.5)football · spreads | Penn State | won | 56¢ · -129 | $886 | +664 |
| 2026-10-31 | Combo: Penn State — Spread: Penn State (-8.5) + Cincinnati — Spread: Utah (-7.5) + TCU — Spread: TCU (-6.5) + Under — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · combo | — | lost | 9¢ · +1056 | $160 | −160 |
| 2026-10-31 | Miami (FL) vs. North Carolina: O/U 51.5football · totals | Over | won | 52¢ · -108 | $304 | +273 |
| 2026-10-31 | Kansas vs. TCUfootball · moneyline | TCU | won | 55¢ · -122 | $405 | +299 |
| 2026-10-31 | Florida vs. Georgia · Spread Georgia (-10.5)football · spreads | Georgia | exited | 54¢ · -116 | $558 | +464 |
| 2026-10-31 | Combo: Louisiana Tech — Spread: Louisiana Tech (-4.5) + Coastal Carolina — Spread: Georgia State (-6.5) + Under — Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · combo | — | won | 18¢ · +467 | $165 | +733 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Indiana (-21.5)football · spreads | Minnesota | won | 56¢ · -127 | $1,013 | +279 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Utah (-20.5)football · spreads | Cincinnati | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $458 | −458 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Utah (-13.5)football · spreads | Cincinnati | lost | 58¢ · -137 | $375 | −375 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Utah (-7.5)football · spreads | Cincinnati | lost | 52¢ · -110 | $913 | −913 |
| 2026-10-31 | Spread: Penn State (-10.5)football · spreads | Penn State | won | 51¢ · -104 | $507 | −44 |
| 2026-10-31 | Wisconsin vs. Iowafootball · moneyline | Iowa | won | 55¢ · -122 | $304 | +241 |
| 2026-10-31 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 71¢ · -242 | $304 | — |
| 2026-10-30 | Colorado State vs. Utah State · Spread Utah State (-6.5)football · spreads | Utah State | won | 57¢ · -133 | $527 | +386 |
| 2026-10-30 | Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State · Spread Georgia State (-6.5)football · spreads | Coastal Carolina | won | 57¢ · -133 | $370 | +271 |
| 2026-10-30 | Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama · Spread Louisiana Tech (-4.5)football · spreads | Louisiana Tech | won | 55¢ · -122 | $355 | +282 |
| 2026-10-30 | Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5football · totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -116 | $1,318 | +1,104 |
| 2026-10-30 | Spread: Oregon (-5.5)football · spreads | Northwestern | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $709 | −709 |
| 2026-10-30 | Spread: Packers (-13.5)football · spreads | Panthers | exited | 53¢ · -111 | $507 | +345 |
| 2026-10-30 | Spread: Packers (-5.5)football · spreads | Panthers | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $659 | −659 |
| 2026-10-27 | Cowboys vs. Eaglesfootball · moneyline | Cowboys | won | 53¢ · -113 | $355 | +305 |
| 2026-10-26 | Combo: Lions — Packers vs. Lions + Seahawks — Chiefs vs. Seahawks + Steelers — Steelers vs. Saintsfootball · combo | — | won | 25¢ · +307 | $200 | +585 |
| 2026-10-26 | Combo: Buccaneers — Spread: Panthers (-3.5) + Seahawks — Chiefs vs. Seahawksfootball · combo | — | won | 34¢ · +193 | $175 | +322 |
| 2026-10-25 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 48¢ · +110 | $2,000 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 38.5football · totals | Over | won | 55¢ · -122 | $456 | +362 |
| 2026-10-25 | 49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5football · totals | Over | won | 55¢ · -123 | $1,039 | +819 |
| 2026-10-25 | Spread: Panthers (-3.5)football · spreads | Buccaneers | won | 58¢ · -138 | $506 | +347 |
| 2026-10-25 | Combo: Texans — 1H Spread: Texans (-3.5) + Lions — Packers vs. Lions + Buccaneers — Spread: Panthers (-3.5) + Seahawks — Chiefs vs. Seahawks + Steelers — Steelers vs. Saintsfootball · combo | — | lost | 9¢ · +1006 | $140 | −140 |
| 2026-10-25 | Combo: Seahawks — Chiefs vs. Seahawks + Texans — 1H Spread: Texans (-4.5)football · combo | — | lost | 33¢ · +205 | $250 | −250 |