Public evidence record

Adelius

0x3e5e0f176663e11d3a156205fde9f9a73069b4af

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.6%456 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.8%$227,165 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.31%90 pre-event fills

Settlement record

366-77-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−14.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 456 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.0% to -0.3%

456 closed positions · 668 taker fills · $227,165 deployed

Typical position $201 (median) · closing line value measured over 90 pre-event fills · 15% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$100

St. Tropez: Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas

Grigor Dimitrov

entry 67¢ · -203now 67¢ · -203+0.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis251 closed205–42-3.9%
Soccer106 closed83–21-5.9%
Esports94 closed75–12–5-4.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	San Diego 2: Ozan Baris vs Alex Rybakovtennis · moneyline	Ozan Baris	won	40¢ · +149	$2,717	+2,256
2026-09-21	Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	G2 Ares	exited	92¢ · -1150	$570	+40
2026-09-21	Genoa 2: Dali Blanch vs Sandro Kopptennis · moneyline	Sandro Kopp	lost	63¢ · -170	$204	−180
2026-09-21	Plovdiv 4: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Oriol Roca Batalla