Public evidence record

Winnerdinnerchickenjr

0x408fe71e6b5401ecd6733970cb6f1a25e984b2f4

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.0%111 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.3%$4,264,509 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.56%114 pre-event fills

Settlement record

52-51Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−9.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 111 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.4% to +3.3%

111 closed positions · 496 taker fills · $4,264,509 deployed

Typical position $20,430 (median) · closing line value measured over 114 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball58 closed29–26-6.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-08-28	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsbaseball · moneyline	Arizona Diamondbacks	lost	54¢ · -117	$24,919	−24,919
2026-08-26	Houston Astros vs. New York Yankeesbaseball · moneyline	New York Yankees	won	54¢ · -116	$142,938	+117,656
2026-08-26	Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline	Chicago Cubs	lost	53¢ · -112	$108,823	−108,823
2026-08-25	Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees