Public evidence record

0x40f5…55b9

0x40f502f276165f19dfba36c225d6c5736c2a55b9

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-12.6%282 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-10.7%$12,574 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-3.24%275 pre-event fills

Settlement record

115-166Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−49.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 282 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -22.0% to -3.1%

282 closed positions · 358 taker fills · $12,574 deployed

Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 275 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$6

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 5¢ · +1755now 2¢ · +6352−3.8 pts

Open

value$159

Will Jahmyr Gibbs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?

Yes

entry 17¢ · +490now 27¢ · +270+10.0 pts

Open

value$8

Will A.J. Brown win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

Yes

entry 3¢ · +3244now 1¢−2.2 pts

Open

value$2

Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Yes

entry 3¢ · +3484now 0¢

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball154 closed70–84-6.1%
Football72 closed23–48-14.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-30	Spread: Raptors (-5.5)basketball · spreads	Raptors	lost	51¢ · -104	$25	−25
2026-10-30	Spread: Heat (-8.5)basketball · spreads	Pacers	lost	49¢ · +104	$25	−25
2026-10-30	Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5basketball · assists	Yes	won	53¢ · -111	$25	+22
2026-10-30	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5basketball · totals