Public evidence record

Hardbotx

0x4232328390d104ce3907bdcaea938a87171ed505

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.9%669 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-9.0%$173,095 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.98%47 pre-event fills

Settlement record

141-345Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−84.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 669 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -14.9% to -0.9%

669 closed positions · 1,439 taker fills · $173,095 deployed

Typical position $198 (median) · closing line value measured over 47 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$8235

M25 Falun: Noah Karma vs Jack Karlsson Wistrand

Jack Karlsson Wistrand

entry 27¢ · +266now 84¢ · -508+56.2 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis423 closed88–233-5.7%
Esports122 closed27–57-10.6%
Baseball70 closed19–27-3.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linettetennis · moneyline	Darya Astakhova	won	22¢ · +355	$1,299	−263
2026-09-21	W50 Plovdiv: Margaux Maquet vs Lucie Petruzelovatennis · moneyline	Lucie Petruzelova	lost	30¢ · +229	$724	−724
2026-09-21	Combo: Darwin Blanch — Tiburon: Darwin Blanch vs Michael Mmoh + Chicago White Sox — Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox + Chiefs — Colts vs. Chiefsmulti sport · combo	—	won	21¢ · +375	$594	+2,121
2026-09-20	New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline	Arizona Diamondbacks