Public evidence record

Acario22

0x461c96f5d07507ea070c9f2134a0b05ba4e0f74b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.1%878 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.9%$40,420 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.28%447 pre-event fills

Settlement record

235-460-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−43.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 878 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.6% to +2.4%

878 closed positions · 1,359 taker fills · $40,420 deployed

Typical position $42 (median) · closing line value measured over 447 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports664 closed152–358–2-4.9%
Baseball80 closed27–44-6.7%
Basketball67 closed32–26-0.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-19	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winneresports · child moneyline	JD Gaming	lost	57¢ · -133	$24	−24
2026-09-18	LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffsesports · moneyline	LOUD	exited	44¢ · +127	$34	−10
2026-09-17	LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffsesports · moneyline	Sentinels	exited	71¢ · -245	$34	−1
2026-09-17	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)esports · map handicap	Natus Vincere	exited