Public evidence record

Acario22

0x461c96f5d07507ea070c9f2134a0b05ba4e0f74b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.3%947 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.0%$42,910 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.39%514 pre-event fills

Settlement record

260-501-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−56.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 947 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.5% to +1.0%

947 closed positions · 1,458 taker fills · $42,910 deployed

Typical position $40 (median) · closing line value measured over 514 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$32

Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5

Under

entry 55¢ · -122now 58¢ · -138+3.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports717 closed169–391–2-6.4%
Baseball81 closed28–44-6.6%
Basketball71 closed34–28-0.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-04	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Aesports · moneyline	Team Falcons	lost	54¢ · -117	$235	−235
2026-11-04	Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)esports · map handicap	MOUZ	won	46¢ · +117	$51	+57
2026-11-04	Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)esports · map handicap	BetBoom Team	lost	37¢ · +170	$38	−38
2026-11-04	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)esports · map handicap	Natus Vincere	won