Public evidence record

MLJBASEBALL

0x48611e62b91a2a0cf8de06d2c9374d2920483aae

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+0.2%182 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+1.0%$399,157 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

Insufficient sample5 pre-event fills

Settlement record

110-72Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−6.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 182 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.9% to +9.3%

182 closed positions · 237 taker fills · $399,157 deployed

Typical position $2,300 (median) · closing line value measured over 5 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$886

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Yes

entry 13¢ · +661now 9¢ · +1011−4.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball182 closed110–72+0.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-15	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Non-sports	Yes	lost	31¢ · +223	$4,749	—
2026-10-06	New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Raysbaseball · moneyline	Tampa Bay Rays	won	61¢ · -156	$2,487	+1,512
2026-10-05	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Non-sports	Yes	lost	13¢ · +661	$1,339	—
2026-09-29	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?