Public evidence record

redfox666

0x4abdea21c609efca17160f1dcbc652ba498a5a5c

Not ranked. median stake under $25 (typical position $17.68). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+1.8%2,436 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+5.7%$332,160 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+4.27%51 pre-event fills

Settlement record

640-456Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−15.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,436 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -0.0% to +3.6%

2,436 closed positions · 8,565 taker fills · $332,160 deployed

Typical position $18 (median) · closing line value measured over 51 pre-event fills · 2% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$82

W15 Monastir: Ellie Daniels vs Anastasia Bertacchi

Ellie Daniels

entry 62¢ · -166now 100¢+37.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis1,793 closed408–238+2.4%
Esports332 closed124–157-7.1%
Baseball113 closed26–15-3.5%
Soccer84 closed42–18+1.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-23	Tolentino: Noemi Basiletti vs Mia Ristictennis · moneyline	Mia Ristic	exited	68¢ · -213	$10	+0
2026-09-23	LoL: CITA Kaizen vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Besports · moneyline	CITA Kaizen	lost	41¢ · +144	$38	−38
2026-09-23	LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Cesports · moneyline	Verdant	lost	29¢ · +243	$75	−75
2026-09-23	Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. AS Roma end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won