Public evidence record

mercury777

0x4e73d4ae46d9a9f633938144ad10c19a893dac97

Record anatomy

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Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.9%792 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.7%$241,557 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.69%434 pre-event fills

Settlement record

361-345-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−72.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 792 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.7% to +0.9%

792 closed positions · 1,460 taker fills · $241,557 deployed

Typical position $198 (median) · closing line value measured over 434 pre-event fills · 18% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

13 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$963

Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5

Over

entry 41¢ · +144now 40¢ · +153−1.5 pts

Open

value$197

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5

Over

entry 46¢ · +119now 9¢ · +1011−36.6 pts

Open

value$476

Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)

Washington Nationals

entry 31¢ · +223now 30¢ · +239−1.5 pts

Open

value$493

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

New York Yankees

entry 35¢ · +186now 35¢ · +190−0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball378 closed168–178–2-1.3%
Tennis282 closed152–109–1-9.1%
Soccer115 closed32–53-7.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linettetennis · moneyline	Magda Linette	lost	52¢ · -107	$159	−159
2026-09-21	Nippon Ham Fighters vs. Orix Buffaloesbaseball · moneyline	Orix Buffaloes	lost	35¢ · +186	$413	−413
2026-09-21	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Oriolesbaseball · moneyline	Baltimore Orioles	lost	3¢ · +3658	$39	−39
2026-09-21	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5baseball · totals	Over	exited

mercury777

Know what this profile can prove.

Currently holding

Over

Over

Washington Nationals

New York Yankees

By sport

Position log

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Over

Over

Over

Over

Over

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks