Public evidence record

0x4f3d…fada

0x4f3d2a21853eb726ac87affab77dea3ef306fada

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-8.5%325 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.1%$16,594 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.20%156 pre-event fills

Settlement record

126-184Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−24.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 325 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.0% to +0.1%

325 closed positions · 481 taker fills · $16,594 deployed

Typical position $42 (median) · closing line value measured over 156 pre-event fills · 12% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

8 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes

entry 46¢ · +117now 11¢ · +852−35.5 pts

Open

value$122

Will Arkansas have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?

No

entry 63¢ · -170now 77¢ · -335+14.0 pts

Open

value$45

Will Kansas State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?

Yes

entry 56¢ · -128now 45¢ · +122−11.1 pts

Open

value$71

Will Carolina Panthers win the 2026 NFC South?

Yes

entry 21¢ · +376now 50¢ · +102+28.5 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football188 closed76–106-8.3%
Basketball106 closed36–61-6.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 77 sports · 23 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5football · totals	Under	lost	58¢ · -138	$83	−83
2026-11-03	Bears vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline	Seahawks	lost	38¢ · +163	$35	−35
2026-11-01	Titans vs. Bengalsfootball · moneyline	Titans	lost	13¢ · +669	$10	−3
2026-11-01	Cardinals vs. Cowboysfootball · moneyline