value$97
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
Yes
Open
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Public evidence record
0x508fb40bc285aa106aaa2aa0d30485395755775f
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-3.2%124 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
+0.9%$8,982 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-0.76%116 pre-event fillsSettlement record
67-48-9Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−10.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 124 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.0% to +6.6%
124 closed positions · 147 taker fills · $8,982 deployed
Typical position $57 (median) · closing line value measured over 116 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?
Senators vs. Canadiens
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 81 sports · 19 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline | Conventus Stellarum | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $56 | −56 |
| 2026-09-21 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Team Nemesis | won | 44¢ · +127 | $161 | +204 |
| 2026-09-20 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand: Home Runs O/U 0.5baseball · baseball player home runs | Over | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $12 | −12 |
| 2026-09-20 |
Genoa 2 (Doubles): Kalender/Serdarusic vs Broska/Oradini
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026?
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
| Aurora Gaming |
| won |
| 31¢ · +223 |
| $36 |
| +75 |
| 2026-09-20 | Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+2.5)esports · map handicap | Vitality | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $72 | −72 |
| 2026-09-19 | Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Cobra - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Team Cobra | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-09-19 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffsesports · moneyline | Vivo Keyd Stars | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $24 | −24 |
| 2026-09-19 | LoL: 9Gaming vs CyberCore Esports (BO3) - VCS Finals Regular Seasonesports · moneyline | 9Gaming | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $22 | −22 |
| 2026-09-19 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffsesports · moneyline | MOUZ | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $36 | −36 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 51¢ · -104 | $188 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs M80 (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffsesports · moneyline | 3DMAX | won | 46¢ · +117 | $53 | +59 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 81¢ · -426 | $96 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Counter-Strike: Infinite vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group Besports · moneyline | EYEBALLERS | won | 60¢ · -150 | $119 | +75 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Non-sports | No | won | 73¢ · -270 | $223 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs BBL (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group Besports · moneyline | BBL | won | 48¢ · +108 | $33 | +35 |
| 2026-09-18 | Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)esports · map handicap | Movistar KOI | won | 47¢ · +113 | $56 | +61 |
| 2026-09-07 | Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 85¢ · -567 | $280 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | No | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $48 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | Ohio vs. Nebraska: O/U 57.5football · totals | Over | won | 56¢ · -127 | $26 | +19 |
| 2026-09-04 | Northern Iowa vs. Eastern Washington: O/U 50.5football · totals | Over | won | 67¢ · -203 | $41 | +19 |
| 2026-09-04 | Athletic Club vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Athletic Club O/U 4.5 Cornerssoccer · soccer team total corners | Over | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $92 | −92 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inter Miami CF vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 3.5 Cornerssoccer · soccer team total corners | Over | won | 47¢ · +113 | $41 | +44 |
| 2026-09-04 | Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: Valencia CF O/U 3.5 Cornerssoccer · soccer team total corners | Over | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-03 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubsbaseball · moneyline | Chicago Cubs | won | 50¢ · -100 | $26 | +24 |
| 2026-09-03 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-09-01 | Rafael Jodar vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis: Total Sets O/U 3.5tennis · tennis set totals | Under 3.5 | push | 51¢ · -104 | $51 | −2 |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Tereza Valentovatennis · moneyline | Tereza Valentova | push | 51¢ · -104 | $307 | −13 |
| 2026-08-31 | Sawangkaew vs. Udvardy: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Over | won | 70¢ · -234 | $101 | +41 |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruudtennis · moneyline | Casper Ruud | push | 51¢ · -104 | $307 | −13 |
| 2026-08-30 | Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Quevedo (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Mertens | won | 60¢ · -152 | $41 | +26 |
| 2026-08-29 | US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardtennis · moneyline | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $41 | −41 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kjaer vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5tennis · tennis match totals | Over | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $37 | −37 |
| 2026-08-26 | Dalibor Svrcina vs. Alexis Galarneau: Total Sets O/U 2.5tennis · tennis set totals | Under 2.5 | won | 57¢ · -133 | $42 | +30 |
| 2026-08-26 | Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Galarneautennis · tennis first set winner | Svrcina | won | 57¢ · -133 | $43 | +31 |
| 2026-08-25 | Cerundolo vs. Suresh: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Under | lost | 70¢ · -229 | $91 | −91 |
| 2026-08-25 | Valdmannova vs. Carle: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Over | won | 61¢ · -159 | $41 | +24 |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Linda Fruhvirtovatennis · moneyline | Polina Kudermetova | lost | 62¢ · -163 | $31 | −31 |
| 2026-08-24 | Set Handicap: Ferro (-1.5) vs Marino (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Marino | won | 58¢ · -138 | $41 | +28 |
| 2026-08-24 | Set 1 Winner: Cecchinato vs Broadytennis · tennis first set winner | Broady | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $41 | −41 |
| 2026-08-24 | Dana White's Contender Series: Carlos Petruzzella vs. Nick Galanti (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Nick Galanti | won | 66¢ · -194 | $66 | +32 |
| 2026-08-24 | Wendelken vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 21.5tennis · tennis match totals | Over | won | 55¢ · -122 | $36 | +28 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dino Prizmic vs. Cruz Hewitt: Total Sets O/U 2.5tennis · tennis set totals | Under 2.5 | push | 51¢ · -104 | $34 | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Preston (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Samsonova | push | 50¢ · -100 | $42 | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Samsonova vs. Preston: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Over | push | 51¢ · -104 | $36 | −2 |
| 2026-08-23 | Liudmila Samsonova vs. Taylah Preston: Total Sets O/U 2.5tennis · tennis set totals | Under 2.5 | push | 51¢ · -104 | $153 | −7 |
| 2026-08-22 | Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap | Gauff | won | 53¢ · -113 | $56 | +47 |
| 2026-08-21 | Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 3.5 Cornerssoccer · soccer team total corners | Over | won | 59¢ · -144 | $20 | +13 |
| 2026-08-20 | RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna: 1st Half O/U 0.5soccer · first half totals | Over | won | 67¢ · -201 | $86 | +41 |
| 2026-08-20 | Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsbaseball · moneyline | Miami Marlins | won | 58¢ · -137 | $87 | +60 |
| 2026-08-18 | Alexandra Eala vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5tennis · tennis set totals | Under 2.5 | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $85 | −85 |
| 2026-08-16 | Navarro vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Over | won | 68¢ · -213 | $59 | +26 |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati Open: Alexandra Eala vs Amanda Anisimovatennis · moneyline | Amanda Anisimova | won | 51¢ · -104 | $102 | +94 |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati Open: Zachary Svajda vs Mattia Belluccitennis · moneyline | Zachary Svajda | lost | 66¢ · -191 | $110 | −110 |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Katerina Siniakovatennis · moneyline | Katerina Siniakova | push | 62¢ · -163 | $204 | −43 |
| 2026-08-10 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-08-08 | Jake Bennett: Strikeouts O/U 4.5baseball · baseball player strikeouts | Over | won | 53¢ · -112 | $102 | +87 |
| 2026-08-08 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlinsbaseball · nrfi | No | won | 52¢ · -107 | $118 | +105 |
| 2026-07-24 | Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverrytennis · moneyline | Alexander Bublik | won | 62¢ · -163 | $611 | +356 |
| 2026-07-21 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbaseball · moneyline | Boston Red Sox | won | 52¢ · -108 | $106 | +94 |
| 2026-07-21 | Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Club Puebla | won | 53¢ · -113 | $108 | +92 |
| 2026-07-21 | San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royalsbaseball · moneyline | Kansas City Royals | won | 49¢ · +104 | $106 | +104 |
| 2026-07-20 | San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 54¢ · -117 | $81 | +65 |
| 2026-07-20 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankeesbaseball · moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $120 | −120 |
| 2026-07-20 | Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifieresports · moneyline | MOUZ | won | 83¢ · -488 | $81 | +16 |
| 2026-07-17 | Will France win on 2026-07-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $199 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | Counter-Strike: K27 vs Wildcard (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffsesports · moneyline | K27 | won | 71¢ · -244 | $89 | +35 |
| 2026-07-15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | won | 58¢ · -139 | $98 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | Will France win on 2026-07-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 38¢ · +165 | $134 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 85¢ · -555 | $74 | +13 |
| 2026-07-09 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $2 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Non-sports | Yes | won | 79¢ · -376 | $55 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | Lionel Messi: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-07-09 | Braunschweig: Niels McDonald vs Martin Krumichtennis · moneyline | Niels McDonald | won | 47¢ · +113 | $35 | +39 |
| 2026-07-09 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $41 | −41 |
| 2026-07-09 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $37 | −37 |
| 2026-07-09 | LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | G2 Esports | lost | 77¢ · -335 | $60 | −60 |
| 2026-07-09 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Non-sports | Yes | won | 20¢ · +400 | $18 | +70 |
| 2026-07-09 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Non-sports | Yes | won | 77¢ · -335 | $6 | +2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsesports · moneyline | BetBoom Team | lost | 59¢ · -141 | $130 | −130 |
| 2026-07-09 | Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $40 | — |
| 2026-07-08 | Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Non-sports | No | won | 85¢ · -567 | $92 | — |
| 2026-07-06 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 38¢ · +163 | $36 | −36 |
| 2026-07-04 | US bank failure by July 31?Non-sports | No | lost | 83¢ · -488 | $76 | −76 |
| 2026-07-04 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | United States | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $99 | −99 |
| 2026-07-04 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Spain | won | 67¢ · -203 | $91 | +43 |
| 2026-07-02 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | Yes | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $79 | −79 |
| 2026-07-02 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stageesports · moneyline | BetBoom Team | won | 68¢ · -213 | $69 | +31 |
| 2026-07-02 | Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 61¢ · -156 | $15 | +9 |
| 2026-07-02 | Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $5 | — |
| 2026-07-02 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +669 | $5 | −5 |
| 2026-07-02 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 11¢ · +809 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-07-02 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | Top Esports | lost | 54¢ · -120 | $83 | −83 |
| 2026-07-02 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | Bilibili Gaming | won | 47¢ · +113 | $37 | +40 |
| 2026-07-02 | LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsesports · moneyline | LYON | won | 72¢ · -257 | $56 | +21 |
| 2026-07-01 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $5 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | Quito: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alan Magadantennis · moneyline | Alan Magadan | won | 28¢ · +257 | $5 | +13 |
| 2026-07-01 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 74¢ · -285 | $15 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $27 | −27 |
| 2026-07-01 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 45¢ · +122 | $34 | +40 |
| 2026-07-01 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Non-sports | Yes | won | 64¢ · -178 | $49 | +27 |