value$106
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Yes
Open
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Public evidence record
0x508fb40bc285aa106aaa2aa0d30485395755775f
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-3.6%285 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
+0.7%$22,065 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-2.64%279 pre-event fillsSettlement record
157-114-14Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−18.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 285 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.4% to +4.3%
285 closed positions · 319 taker fills · $22,065 deployed
Typical position $47 (median) · closing line value measured over 279 pre-event fills · 7% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 74 sports · 26 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 18.5basketball · points | Yes | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $312 | −312 |
| 2026-11-06 | Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 19.5basketball · points | Yes | lost | 21¢ · +377 | $156 | −156 |
| 2026-11-05 | Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraztennis · moneyline | Carlos Alcaraz | push | 79¢ · -386 | $412 | −155 |
| 2026-11-04 | Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-06 House Election?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan Droguet
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin
Rolex Paris Masters: Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machac
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?
| Yes |
| lost |
| 37¢ · +170 |
| $327 |
| −327 |
| 2026-11-04 | Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5basketball · assists | Yes | lost | 27¢ · +270 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-11-04 | PSV vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 49¢ · +104 | $46 | +45 |
| 2026-11-04 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Aesports · moneyline | Team Falcons | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $79 | −79 |
| 2026-11-04 | Pacers vs. Grizzlies · Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5basketball · assists | Yes | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-11-04 | Hawks vs. Wizards · Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 20.5basketball · points | Yes | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $37 | −37 |
| 2026-11-02 | Rolex Paris Masters: Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machactennis · moneyline | Tomas Machac | won | 64¢ · -178 | $106 | +57 |
| 2026-11-02 | Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Titouan Droguettennis · moneyline | Alex Molcan | won | 56¢ · -127 | $335 | +250 |
| 2026-11-02 | Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel Cerundolotennis · moneyline | Casper Ruud | won | 73¢ · -270 | $435 | +153 |
| 2026-11-02 | Counter-Strike · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 53¢ · -113 | $85 | +72 |
| 2026-11-02 | Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodartennis · moneyline | Rafael Jodar | won | 80¢ · -400 | $263 | +62 |
| 2026-11-01 | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenintennis · moneyline | Leylah Fernandez | push | 64¢ · -178 | $159 | −37 |
| 2026-10-31 | Titans vs. Bengalsfootball · moneyline | Bengals | won | 87¢ · -669 | $182 | +26 |
| 2026-10-31 | UConn vs. Air Forcefootball · moneyline | Air Force | won | 49¢ · +104 | $58 | +58 |
| 2026-10-31 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)esports · map handicap | Nemiga | won | 54¢ · -117 | $88 | +75 |
| 2026-10-31 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffsesports · moneyline | Team Yandex | won | 92¢ · -1233 | $301 | +23 |
| 2026-10-28 | 76ers vs. Pacersbasketball · moneyline | Pacers | lost | 37¢ · +170 | $46 | −46 |
| 2026-10-28 | Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashimatennis · moneyline | Brandon Nakashima | lost | 65¢ · -186 | $76 | −76 |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?Non-sports | No | won | 78¢ · -355 | $69 | +19 |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Non-sports | No | lost | 75¢ · -300 | $45 | −45 |
| 2026-10-26 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?Non-sports | No | won | 80¢ · -400 | $70 | +18 |
| 2026-10-24 | Oregon vs. Illinois · Spread Oregon (-6.5)football · spreads | Oregon | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $501 | −501 |
| 2026-10-24 | Lightning vs. Utahhockey · moneyline | Lightning | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-10-24 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Non-sports | Yes | won | 88¢ · -733 | $118 | +16 |
| 2026-10-24 | North Texas vs. Navyfootball · moneyline | North Texas | won | 59¢ · -144 | $26 | +17 |
| 2026-10-24 | Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)basketball · spreads | Cavaliers | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $55 | −55 |
| 2026-10-24 | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $119 | — |
| 2026-10-24 | Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 85¢ · -567 | $35 | — |
| 2026-10-24 | Red Wings vs. Flameshockey · moneyline | Red Wings | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $42 | −42 |
| 2026-10-24 | Golden Knights vs. Blue Jacketshockey · moneyline | Golden Knights | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $42 | −42 |
| 2026-10-24 | Spread: 76ers (-11.5)basketball · spreads | 76ers | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $55 | −55 |
| 2026-10-24 | Spread: Suns (-8.5)basketball · spreads | Suns | won | 54¢ · -117 | $55 | +47 |
| 2026-10-24 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | G2 | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $55 | −55 |
| 2026-10-24 | Rockets vs. Hawksbasketball · moneyline | Hawks | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $55 | −55 |
| 2026-10-24 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 80¢ · -399 | $202 | +48 |
| 2026-10-23 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stageesports · moneyline | Vitality | won | 84¢ · -525 | $26 | +5 |
| 2026-10-23 | First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 91¢ · -1036 | $69 | +7 |
| 2026-10-23 | Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)esports · map handicap | Aurora Gaming | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $30 | −30 |
| 2026-10-23 | Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 68¢ · -213 | $103 | — |
| 2026-10-23 | Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 235.5basketball · totals | Over | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $47 | −47 |
| 2026-10-23 | Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5basketball · totals | Under | won | 44¢ · +127 | $47 | +60 |
| 2026-10-23 | Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5basketball · totals | Under | won | 47¢ · +113 | $47 | +53 |
| 2026-10-23 | Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5basketball · totals | Over | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $47 | −47 |
| 2026-10-23 | Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5basketball · totals | Over | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $47 | −47 |
| 2026-10-23 | Canadiens vs. Blackhawkshockey · moneyline | Blackhawks | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-10-23 | Lightning vs. Avalanchehockey · moneyline | Avalanche | won | 53¢ · -113 | $63 | +54 |
| 2026-10-23 | Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5basketball · totals | Under | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $94 | −94 |
| 2026-10-23 | Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5basketball · totals | Over | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $94 | −94 |
| 2026-10-23 | Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5basketball · totals | Over | won | 48¢ · +108 | $94 | +102 |
| 2026-10-23 | UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Nurullo Aliev | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $112 | −112 |
| 2026-10-23 | Patriots vs. Bearsfootball · moneyline | Bears | won | 76¢ · -317 | $755 | +231 |
| 2026-10-23 | Spread: Bears (-3.5)football · spreads | Patriots | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $152 | −152 |
| 2026-10-22 | Spread: Thunder (-8.5)basketball · spreads | Thunder | won | 49¢ · +104 | $117 | +122 |
| 2026-10-21 | FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 72¢ · -257 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-10-21 | Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5football · totals | Under | won | 51¢ · -104 | $25 | +24 |
| 2026-10-21 | Hawks vs. Magic · Spread Magic (-3.5)basketball · spreads | Hawks | won | 52¢ · -108 | $26 | +24 |
| 2026-10-21 | Club Brugge KV vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 50¢ · -100 | $34 | +32 |
| 2026-10-21 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 80¢ · -400 | $58 | −58 |
| 2026-10-21 | Hornets vs. Netsbasketball · moneyline | Nets | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $30 | −30 |
| 2026-10-21 | FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | lost | 37¢ · +170 | $30 | −30 |
| 2026-10-20 | Missouri State vs. Delawarefootball · moneyline | Delaware | won | 61¢ · -156 | $126 | +78 |
| 2026-10-20 | Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 62¢ · -163 | $45 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 76¢ · -317 | $40 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Manchester City FC leading at halftime?soccer · soccer halftime result | Yes | won | 70¢ · -233 | $16 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 87¢ · -669 | $38 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 62¢ · -163 | $32 | +18 |
| 2026-10-20 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $73 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 56¢ · -127 | $38 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 43¢ · +133 | $45 | +57 |
| 2026-10-19 | Commanders vs. 49ersfootball · moneyline | 49ers | won | 77¢ · -335 | $503 | +146 |
| 2026-10-19 | Spread: Knicks (-4.5)basketball · spreads | Knicks | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $18 | −18 |
| 2026-10-19 | Will Kristian Horvath win the next Sorell mayoral election?Non-sports | No | won | 78¢ · -355 | $43 | — |
| 2026-10-19 | Mavericks vs. Rockets · Spread Rockets (-5.5)basketball · spreads | Rockets | won | 62¢ · -163 | $29 | +17 |
| 2026-10-19 | First Round Outright Winner in the LA-05 House Election?Non-sports | No | won | 84¢ · -533 | $17 | +3 |
| 2026-10-19 | First Round Outright Winner in the LA-06 House Election?Non-sports | No | won | 90¢ · -900 | $121 | +13 |
| 2026-10-19 | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffsesports · moneyline | PARIVISION | won | 60¢ · -150 | $35 | +23 |
| 2026-10-19 | Cowboys vs. Packersfootball · moneyline | Packers | won | 60¢ · -153 | $942 | +598 |
| 2026-10-18 | Dota 2: CyberHero vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | CyberHero | won | 78¢ · -355 | $51 | +15 |
| 2026-10-16 | Will Shannon Weber win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election?Non-sports | No | lost | 65¢ · -185 | $70 | — |
| 2026-10-16 | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 90¢ · -900 | $91 | — |
| 2026-10-15 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 77¢ · -335 | $51 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AEK: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 76¢ · -317 | $50 | +15 |
| 2026-10-14 | Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Shadow Dance (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsesports · moneyline | HULIGANI | won | 97¢ · -3233 | $195 | +6 |
| 2026-10-14 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group Besports · moneyline | Legacy | won | 59¢ · -144 | $66 | +43 |
| 2026-10-14 | Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - DreamLeague China Closed Qualifier Playoffsesports · moneyline | Team Resilience | won | 63¢ · -170 | $57 | +34 |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $37 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Yakult Brothers | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $14 | −14 |
| 2026-10-14 | Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 26¢ · +282 | $5 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 74¢ · -285 | $52 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Non-sports | No | won | 63¢ · -170 | $9 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Non-sports | No | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $10 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 63¢ · -170 | $47 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $21 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 83¢ · -488 | $13 | −13 |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 82¢ · -456 | $13 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Non-sports | No | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $42 | −42 |
| 2026-10-14 | Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 87¢ · -669 | $31 | −31 |