Public evidence record

chrysos

0x536e4bd582d437cb2a4bc6bbec8384c600cd4fd5

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.8%2,155 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.2%$139,173 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.75%1,081 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1171-958-10Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−102.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,155 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.5% to -0.0%

2,155 closed positions · 2,770 taker fills · $139,173 deployed

Typical position $76 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,081 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$101

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D

NRG

entry 48¢ · +108now 49¢ · +106+0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports1,373 closed745–616–6-2.5%
Soccer406 closed247–150-0.8%
Baseball190 closed80–109-12.4%
Tennis185 closed98–83–4-8.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline	Conventus Stellarum	lost	52¢ · -108	$102	−102
2026-09-21	Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	MOUZ	lost	57¢ · -133	$50	−50
2026-09-21	LoL: FENNEL vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group Cesports · moneyline	FENNEL	lost	55¢ · -122	$51	−51
2026-09-21	Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs 1win - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	1win