value$1234
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No
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Public evidence record
0x5754becbe873d6ba9eefa4eedf214dd254ece515
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-10.7%322 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-10.7%$107,716 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-3.71%318 pre-event fillsSettlement record
119-195-3Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−45.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 322 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -20.3% to -1.1%
322 closed positions · 622 taker fills · $107,716 deployed
Typical position $206 (median) · closing line value measured over 318 pre-event fills · 12% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 65 sports · 35 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 96¢ · -2400 | $3,885 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 35¢ · +183 | $1,178 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +9239 | $104 | — |
| 2026-11-03 |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
| Yes |
| lost |
| 5¢ · +1823 |
| $0 |
| — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?Non-sports | No | lost | 9¢ · +1011 | $53 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 8¢ · +1127 | $21 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Bears vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $460 | −460 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?Non-sports | No | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $11 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +653 | $209 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 6¢ · +1502 | $556 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Non-sports | No | exited | 6¢ · +1563 | $275 | +41 |
| 2026-11-01 | Cardinals vs. Cowboysfootball · moneyline | Cardinals | won | 23¢ · +335 | $389 | +1,263 |
| 2026-11-01 | Titans vs. Bengalsfootball · moneyline | Titans | lost | 14¢ · +614 | $161 | −161 |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $1,111 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Lions (-3.5)football · spreads | Lions | won | 48¢ · +108 | $663 | +697 |
| 2026-11-01 | Eagles vs. Commandersfootball · moneyline | Eagles | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $572 | −572 |
| 2026-11-01 | Chiefs vs. Broncosfootball · moneyline | Chiefs | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $697 | −697 |
| 2026-11-01 | Raiders vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $723 | −723 |
| 2026-11-01 | Falcons vs. Buccaneersfootball · moneyline | Buccaneers | won | 55¢ · -122 | $737 | +585 |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 34¢ · +195 | $1,130 | — |
| 2026-10-30 | Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 17¢ · +488 | $189 | — |
| 2026-10-28 | Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 18¢ · +456 | $200 | — |
| 2026-10-28 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Non-sports | No | lost | 54¢ · -118 | $120 | — |
| 2026-10-28 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $366 | — |
| 2026-10-28 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 13¢ · +652 | $619 | — |
| 2026-10-28 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Non-sports | No | exited | 72¢ · -264 | $1,600 | — |
| 2026-10-27 | Cowboys vs. Eaglesfootball · moneyline | Eagles | lost | 35¢ · +189 | $781 | −781 |
| 2026-10-27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Non-sports | No | lost | 7¢ · +1430 | $416 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Non-sports | Yes | won | 75¢ · -297 | $4,460 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $10 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 6¢ · +1539 | $85 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 19¢ · +428 | $217 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 17¢ · +498 | $341 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Non-sports | No | won | 57¢ · -132 | $8,719 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 26¢ · +285 | $900 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Packers vs. Lionsfootball · moneyline | Packers | lost | 27¢ · +270 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-10-25 | Buccaneers vs. Panthersfootball · moneyline | Panthers | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $123 | −123 |
| 2026-10-25 | Giants vs. Texansfootball · moneyline | Giants | won | 40¢ · +150 | $224 | +326 |
| 2026-10-25 | 49ers vs. Falconsfootball · moneyline | Falcons | won | 22¢ · +355 | $215 | +740 |
| 2026-10-25 | Dolphins vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Dolphins | won | 36¢ · +178 | $418 | +721 |
| 2026-10-25 | Broncos vs. Cardinalsfootball · moneyline | Cardinals | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $337 | −337 |
| 2026-10-25 | Colts vs. Vikingsfootball · moneyline | Colts | lost | 26¢ · +285 | $409 | −409 |
| 2026-10-23 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 35¢ · +185 | $1,739 | −1,739 |
| 2026-10-22 | Pacers vs. Pelicansbasketball · moneyline | Pacers | won | 30¢ · +233 | $200 | +467 |
| 2026-10-20 | Commanders vs. 49ersfootball · moneyline | Commanders | lost | 14¢ · +639 | $431 | −431 |
| 2026-10-19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Non-sports | No | lost | 15¢ · +567 | $400 | −400 |
| 2026-10-19 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Non-sports | No | lost | 17¢ · +488 | $200 | −200 |
| 2026-10-18 | Cardinals vs. Ramsfootball · moneyline | Cardinals | won | 25¢ · +306 | $756 | +1,799 |
| 2026-10-18 | Cardinals vs. Ramsfootball · moneyline | Rams | lost | 36¢ · +177 | $357 | −357 |
| 2026-10-18 | Steelers vs. Buccaneersfootball · moneyline | Buccaneers | lost | 45¢ · +121 | $305 | −305 |
| 2026-10-18 | Cowboys vs. Packersfootball · moneyline | Cowboys | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $446 | −446 |
| 2026-10-18 | Bills vs. Raidersfootball · moneyline | Raiders | lost | 32¢ · +212 | $286 | −286 |
| 2026-10-18 | Chargers vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline | Chargers | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $430 | −430 |
| 2026-10-18 | Nebraska vs. Oregonfootball · moneyline | Nebraska | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $31 | −31 |
| 2026-10-16 | Seahawks vs. Broncosfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | lost | 22¢ · +355 | $409 | −190 |
| 2026-10-14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $775 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | Bills vs. Ramsfootball · moneyline | Rams | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $406 | −406 |
| 2026-10-12 | Spread: Falcons (-3.5)football · spreads | Falcons | lost | 42¢ · +140 | $265 | −265 |
| 2026-10-12 | Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5football · totals | Over | won | 51¢ · -104 | $207 | +193 |
| 2026-10-11 | 49ers vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $408 | −408 |
| 2026-10-11 | Giants vs. Commandersfootball · moneyline | Commanders | push | 36¢ · +176 | $102 | +36 |
| 2026-10-11 | Broncos vs. Chargersfootball · moneyline | Chargers | lost | 37¢ · +171 | $397 | −397 |
| 2026-10-11 | Vikings vs. Saintsfootball · moneyline | Saints | lost | 5¢ · +1900 | $41 | −40 |
| 2026-10-11 | Browns vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | won | 60¢ · -151 | $465 | +300 |
| 2026-10-11 | Bears vs. Packersfootball · moneyline | Bears | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-10-11 | Bengals vs. Dolphinsfootball · moneyline | Dolphins | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $409 | −409 |
| 2026-10-10 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 62¢ · -163 | $2,066 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 14¢ · +590 | $36 | — |
| 2026-10-09 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 37¢ · +169 | $268 | — |
| 2026-10-08 | Buccaneers vs. Cowboysfootball · moneyline | Buccaneers | won | 20¢ · +400 | $358 | +1,392 |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons vs. Saintsfootball · moneyline | Saints | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $320 | −320 |
| 2026-10-04 | Spread: Vikings (-10.5)football · spreads | Vikings | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $300 | −300 |
| 2026-10-04 | Spread: Bills (-6.5)football · spreads | Patriots | won | 48¢ · +108 | $300 | +325 |
| 2026-10-04 | Patriots vs. Billsfootball · moneyline | Patriots | won | 27¢ · +270 | $500 | +1,009 |
| 2026-10-04 | Jaguars vs. Bengalsfootball · moneyline | Jaguars | won | 44¢ · +127 | $250 | +318 |
| 2026-10-04 | Cardinals vs. Giantsfootball · moneyline | Giants | won | 45¢ · +122 | $250 | +306 |
| 2026-09-27 | Vikings vs. Buccaneersfootball · moneyline | Vikings | won | 52¢ · -109 | $446 | +410 |
| 2026-09-27 | Raiders vs. Saints: O/U 43.5football · totals | Over | won | 52¢ · -109 | $440 | +403 |
| 2026-09-27 | Spread: Saints (-3.5)football · spreads | Saints | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $380 | −380 |
| 2026-09-27 | Rams vs. Broncosfootball · moneyline | Rams | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $360 | −360 |
| 2026-09-27 | Eagles vs. Bearsfootball · moneyline | Bears | won | 35¢ · +186 | $311 | +577 |
| 2026-09-27 | Texans vs. Coltsfootball · moneyline | Texans | lost | 29¢ · +251 | $380 | −380 |
| 2026-09-27 | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)football · spreads | Dolphins | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $316 | −316 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Valesca Machado | won | 66¢ · -194 | $102 | +50 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Sedriques Dumas | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $103 | −103 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night: Christian Edwards vs. Rodolfo Bellato (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Christian Edwards | won | 38¢ · +163 | $412 | +640 |
| 2026-09-20 | Bengals vs. Texansfootball · moneyline | Texans | lost | 5¢ · +2000 | $25 | −25 |
| 2026-09-20 | Colts vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline | Colts | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $290 | −290 |
| 2026-09-20 | Dolphins vs. 49ersfootball · moneyline | Dolphins | lost | 12¢ · +733 | $153 | −153 |
| 2026-08-26 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 47¢ · +111 | $2,406 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffsesports · moneyline | Team Liquid | lost | 21¢ · +376 | $577 | −577 |
| 2026-08-12 | Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-08-09?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $602 | — |
| 2026-08-12 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Non-sports | No | lost | 61¢ · -155 | $4,112 | −4,112 |
| 2026-08-12 | UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Ramiz Brahimaj | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $358 | −358 |
| 2026-08-12 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5baseball · totals | Over | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $545 | −545 |
| 2026-08-12 | Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5baseball · totals | Over | won | 47¢ · +113 | $554 | +595 |
| 2026-08-12 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning? · Spread Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)baseball · spreads | Tampa Bay Rays | won | 56¢ · -127 | $562 | +420 |
| 2026-08-12 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersbaseball · moneyline | Detroit Tigers | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $1,343 | −785 |
| 2026-08-10 | Will América de Cali win on 2026-08-08?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 39¢ · +156 | $464 | — |
| 2026-08-10 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning? · Spread Houston Astros (-1.5)baseball · spreads | Houston Astros | lost | 35¢ · +185 | $130 | −130 |