Public evidence record

SteadyC

0x5cbc6852e4736c1628bd5f7cdfe5f57c4b271d39

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-12.0%502 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-9.8%$66,119 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.06%237 pre-event fills

Settlement record

176-296-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−66.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 502 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -20.2% to -3.9%

502 closed positions · 787 taker fills · $66,119 deployed

Typical position $79 (median) · closing line value measured over 237 pre-event fills · 2% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$8

Will Elon Musk post about $LAPTOP by September 30?

Yes

entry 17¢ · +500now 1¢ · +7307−15.3 pts

Open

value$7

Will Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?

Yes

entry 26¢ · +287now 1¢ · +8596−24.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

MMA300 closed92–186–3-10.6%
Basketball132 closed65–61-1.4%
Baseball54 closed18–36-10.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline	Alexandre Pantoja	lost	39¢ · +156	$773	−773
2026-09-20	UFC 331 · O/U 3.5 Roundsmma · totals	Under	lost	50¢ · -100	$384	−384
2026-09-20	UFC 331 · O/U 4.5 Roundsmma · totals	Under	lost	58¢ · -138	$408	−408
2026-09-20	UFC 331 · O/U 3.5 Roundsmma · totals