Public evidence record

Lucid1008

0x5fb307a2956582d7ce705aefca18f5debdeb88c1

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-12.4%2,743 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.3%$154,036 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.35%1,295 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1222-1447Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−156.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,743 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.0% to -8.7%

2,743 closed positions · 3,647 taker fills · $154,036 deployed

Typical position $45 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,295 pre-event fills · 19% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$6

Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 1¢now 1¢−0.2 pts

Open

value$63

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +954now 11¢ · +852+1.0 pts

Open

value$77

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +1006now 15¢ · +547+6.4 pts

Open

value$26

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 10¢ · +953now 7¢ · +1438−3.0 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball1,023 closed513–481-9.9%
Baseball784 closed313–459-16.3%
Soccer388 closed178–210-5.6%
Football317 closed121–165-11.7%
multi sport93 closed35–58-15.8%
Hockey90 closed40–49-11.4%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Combo: Suns — Magic vs. Suns + Warriors — Heat vs. Warriorsbasketball · combo	—	won	48¢ · +110	$50	+52
2026-11-06	Combo: Under — Magic vs. Suns: O/U 231.5 + Warriors — Heat vs. Warriorsbasketball · combo	—	won	43¢ · +135	$50	+64
2026-11-06	Combo: Jaguars — Spread: Jaguars (-5.5) + Over — Jaguars Team Total: O/U 20.5football · combo	—	won	57¢ · -130	$55	+40
2026-11-06	Combo: Jaguars — Spread: Jaguars (-5.5) + Over — Jaguars Team Total: O/U 23.5football · combo	—	won