Public evidence record

sirluca888

0x64511822c851d4d56d8c6e5376ecfd724c36b57a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.0%213 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.9%$160,517 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.89%17,381 pre-event fills

Settlement record

94-119Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−16.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 213 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -15.5% to +5.5%

213 closed positions · 18,065 taker fills · $160,517 deployed

Typical position $997 (median) · closing line value measured over 17,381 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$527

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Guardians

entry 47¢ · +115now 46¢ · +120−1.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball213 closed94–119-4.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline	Miami Marlins	lost	42¢ · +138	$998	−998
2026-09-20	New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline	Arizona Diamondbacks	won	41¢ · +144	$999	+1,367
2026-09-18	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangersbaseball · moneyline	Texas Rangers	won	45¢ · +122	$997	+1,159
2026-09-18	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Oriolesbaseball · moneyline	Baltimore Orioles	lost