Public evidence record

sirluca888

0x64511822c851d4d56d8c6e5376ecfd724c36b57a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.6%232 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.6%$174,006 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.81%18,959 pre-event fills

Settlement record

100-130Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−16.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 232 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -15.8% to +4.6%

232 closed positions · 19,064 taker fills · $174,006 deployed

Typical position $996 (median) · closing line value measured over 18,959 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

We couldn’t reach the source just now, so this is unavailable rather than empty. The settled record below is unaffected.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball224 closed99–125-4.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Blue Jackets vs. Sabreshockey · moneyline	Sabres	exited	60¢ · -150	$426	−9
2026-11-05	Utah vs. Canadienshockey · moneyline	Utah	lost	49¢ · +105	$675	+13
2026-11-05	Predators vs. Avalanchehockey · moneyline	Avalanche	lost	66¢ · -194	$671	−671
2026-11-05	Blackhawks vs. Panthershockey · moneyline	Blackhawks	lost	29¢ · +242	$278