Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
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Public evidence record
0x681d7946e0280c6ec6562c7ce662e90812354cbf
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-3.4%2,165 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-2.2%$122,772 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-1.38%1,692 pre-event fillsSettlement record
1076-1049-6Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−70.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,165 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.5% to +0.6%
2,165 closed positions · 2,987 taker fills · $122,772 deployed
Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,692 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | St. Tropez: Titouan Droguet vs Borna Gojotennis · moneyline | Titouan Droguet | won | 35¢ · +186 | $52 | +91 |
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 2: Murkel Dellien vs Juan Pablo Varillastennis · moneyline | Juan Pablo Varillas | won | 61¢ · -156 | $51 | +31 |
| 2026-09-23 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athleticsbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Angels | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-23 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox |
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Spread: Florida (-3.5)
Ole Miss vs. Florida
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
| Cleveland Guardians |
| won |
| 48¢ · +108 |
| $51 |
| +53 |
| 2026-09-22 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Cincinnati Reds | won | 32¢ · +212 | $52 | +105 |
| 2026-09-22 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankeesbaseball · moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-22 | St. Tropez: Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkatetennis · moneyline | Matteo Martineau | won | 47¢ · +113 | $51 | +55 |
| 2026-09-22 | Ankara: Katarina Kuzmova vs Cagla Buyukakcaytennis · moneyline | Katarina Kuzmova | lost | 21¢ · +380 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-22 | M25 Yinchuan: Reiya Komagata vs Ryoma Cogantennis · moneyline | Reiya Komagata | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-22 | Combo: Over — Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 + Giants — Giants vs. Ramsmulti sport · combo | — | lost | 14¢ · +608 | $30 | −30 |
| 2026-09-21 | San Diego 2: Braden Shick vs Patrick Maloneytennis · moneyline | Patrick Maloney | won | 58¢ · -138 | $48 | +33 |
| 2026-09-21 | Tolentino: Laura Samson vs Noemi Basilettitennis · moneyline | Laura Samson | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-21 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline | Natus Vincere | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-21 | Tolentino: Polona Hercog vs Leyre Romero Gormaztennis · moneyline | Leyre Romero Gormaz | won | 56¢ · -127 | $51 | +38 |
| 2026-09-21 | Sao Paulo Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Nadia Podoroskatennis · moneyline | Nadia Podoroska | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-21 | Tyler Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5football · receiving yards | Over | lost | 41¢ · +144 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-20 | San Diego 2: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteeletennis · moneyline | Quinn Vandecasteele | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-20 | San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | San Francisco Giants | lost | 10¢ · +900 | $31 | −31 |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | lost | 35¢ · +183 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-20 | Combo: Panthers — Panthers vs. Falcons + Bears — Vikings vs. Bearsfootball · combo | — | lost | 37¢ · +169 | $50 | −4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbaseball · moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates | won | 42¢ · +138 | $51 | +68 |
| 2026-09-20 | Steelers vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5football · totals | Under | won | 52¢ · -108 | $50 | +46 |
| 2026-09-20 | Packers vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 53¢ · -113 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 65¢ · -186 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 46¢ · +117 | $51 | +57 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Sao Paulo Open: Nadia Podoroska vs Paula Badosatennis · moneyline | Nadia Podoroska | won | 53¢ · -113 | $51 | +43 |
| 2026-09-19 | Wyoming vs. Central Michiganfootball · moneyline | Wyoming | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-19 | North Carolina vs. Clemson · Spread Clemson (-2.5)football · spreads | North Carolina | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 38¢ · +163 | $52 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Cardiff City FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 45¢ · +122 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Guadalajara Open Akron: Liudmila Samsonova vs Peyton Stearnstennis · moneyline | Peyton Stearns | won | 32¢ · +212 | $52 | +105 |
| 2026-09-19 | New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-18 | Sao Paulo Open: Anna Blinkova vs Alina Charaevatennis · moneyline | Anna Blinkova | won | 52¢ · -108 | $51 | +45 |
| 2026-09-18 | Valencia: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Joelle Steurtennis · moneyline | Joelle Steur | won | 36¢ · +174 | $52 | +86 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 65¢ · -186 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Caldas da Rainha: Susan Bandecchi vs Lisa Pigatotennis · moneyline | Lisa Pigato | won | 36¢ · +178 | $52 | +87 |
| 2026-09-18 | Sao Paulo Open: Teodora Kostovic vs Kaitlin Quevedotennis · moneyline | Teodora Kostovic | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-18 | Caldas da Rainha: Jeline Vandromme vs Francisca Jorgetennis · moneyline | Jeline Vandromme | won | 51¢ · -103 | $50 | +46 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 56¢ · -127 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Guadalajara Open Akron: Peyton Stearns vs Sloane Stephenstennis · moneyline | Sloane Stephens | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-17 | Lions vs. Billsfootball · moneyline | Bills | won | 70¢ · -233 | $51 | +21 |
| 2026-09-17 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashimatennis · moneyline | Bryce Nakashima | won | 40¢ · +151 | $52 | +74 |
| 2026-09-17 | Combo: Tampa Bay Rays — Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays + Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbaseball · combo | — | lost | 46¢ · +119 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-17 | Rennes: Adrian Mannarino vs Matisse Bobichontennis · moneyline | Adrian Mannarino | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 66¢ · -194 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | Caldas da Rainha: Francisca Jorge vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevatennis · moneyline | Francisca Jorge | won | 51¢ · -104 | $51 | +47 |
| 2026-09-17 | Guadalajara Open Akron: Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonovatennis · moneyline | Liudmila Samsonova | won | 36¢ · +177 | $52 | +87 |
| 2026-09-16 | Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astrosbaseball · moneyline | Houston Astros | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-16 | Combo: No — Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? + Yes — Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?soccer · combo | — | won | 55¢ · -123 | $50 | +39 |
| 2026-09-16 | Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 57¢ · -133 | $51 | +37 |
| 2026-09-16 | Sao Paulo Open: Nauhany Leme Da Silva vs Astra Sharmatennis · moneyline | Nauhany Leme Da Silva | won | 49¢ · +104 | $64 | +63 |
| 2026-09-16 | Combo: Arizona Diamondbacks — Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks + Under — Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5baseball · combo | — | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $37 | −37 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $10 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | Combo: No — Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15? + Yes — Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-15?soccer · combo | — | lost | 34¢ · +197 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-15 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Metsbaseball · moneyline | New York Mets | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $10 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 50¢ · -100 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks | won | 31¢ · +223 | $52 | +110 |
| 2026-09-15 | Broncos vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline | Broncos | lost | 17¢ · +488 | $42 | −42 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 0¢ · +99900 | $10 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 42¢ · +138 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | Combo: Saints — Spread: Lions (-7.5) + Jets — Spread: Titans (-1.5)football · combo | — | won | 29¢ · +244 | $40 | +93 |
| 2026-09-14 | Cowboys vs. Giantsfootball · moneyline | Cowboys | lost | 60¢ · -152 | $49 | −49 |
| 2026-09-13 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 44¢ · +127 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-09-13?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 49¢ · +104 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 60¢ · -150 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Real Salt Lake vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 52¢ · -108 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 54¢ · -119 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 48¢ · +108 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Combo: New York Yankees — New York Mets vs. New York Yankees + Ben Shelton — US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Sheltonmulti sport · combo | — | won | 41¢ · +143 | $50 | +68 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 46¢ · +117 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 56¢ · -127 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanovtennis · moneyline | Alexander Zverev | won | 82¢ · -456 | $47 | +10 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Venezia FC win on 2026-09-11?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $52 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 48¢ · +108 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5baseball · totals | Over | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $39 | −39 |
| 2026-09-10 | Spread: Rams (-3.5)football · spreads | Rams | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-10 | Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-09-10 | Combo: New York Yankees — Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees + Over — Philadelphia Union vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5multi sport · combo | — | won | 37¢ · +171 | $50 | +81 |
| 2026-09-10 | Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-09?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 45¢ · +122 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Over | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-09 | Combo: Coco Gauff — US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff + Over — Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5multi sport · combo | — | won | 29¢ · +248 | $50 | +118 |
| 2026-09-09 | VfB Stuttgart vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 61¢ · -156 | $51 | +31 |
| 2026-09-09 | Combo: San Diego Padres — Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres + Over — Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5baseball · combo | — | lost | 26¢ · +288 | $50 | −50 |
| 2026-09-09 | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraztennis · moneyline | Carlos Alcaraz | lost | 77¢ · -335 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-09 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning? · Spread Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)baseball · spreads | Atlanta Braves | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsentennis · moneyline | Frances Tiafoe | won | 22¢ · +359 | $47 | +160 |
| 2026-09-08 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 59¢ · -144 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-09-07 | SMU vs. Florida State · Spread SMU (-2.5)football · spreads | SMU | won | 52¢ · -108 | $51 | +45 |
| 2026-09-07 | Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-09-07?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 53¢ · -113 | $51 | +43 |
| 2026-09-06 | Will CD Castellón win on 2026-09-06?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 65¢ · -186 | $51 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 57¢ · -133 | $51 | — |