Public evidence record

aplstrade

0x6a9715400a037e29b2b847e08bad312b2e2ddb95

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 5, 2026

Source sync: Oct 4, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.2%1,107 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+5.8%$202,008 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

Insufficient sample19 pre-event fills

Settlement record

618-488-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−39.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,107 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.7% to +3.4%

1,107 closed positions · 1,425 taker fills · $202,008 deployed

Typical position $39 (median) · closing line value measured over 19 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$91

Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Liam Draxl

Hugo Gaston

entry 42¢ · +138now 9¢ · +1076−33.4 pts

Open

value$979

China Open: Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek

entry 80¢ · -401now 100¢+19.9 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis1,007 closed553–454-3.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-04	Colgate vs. Harvardfootball · moneyline	Harvard	won	84¢ · -525	$251	+48
2026-10-04	Canadiens vs. Penguinshockey · moneyline	Penguins	won	96¢ · -2400	$410	+16
2026-10-03	Syracuse vs. UConnfootball · moneyline	Syracuse	won	50¢ · +100	$49	+50
2026-10-03	W15 Nashville, TN: Merna Refaat vs Rose Marie Nijkamptennis · moneyline	Rose Marie Nijkamp	won	68¢ · -213	$6