Public evidence record

medvedman

0x6b0e1a58bcf5aa11c19b8936b02343cebeb70517

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-1.7%206 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.6%$117,975 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.67%196 pre-event fills

Settlement record

51-71-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−18.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 206 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.2% to +6.9%

206 closed positions · 353 taker fills · $117,975 deployed

Typical position $514 (median) · closing line value measured over 196 pre-event fills · 30% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1119

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 14¢ · +637now 4¢ · +2432−9.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball120 closed36–35+1.0%
Esports71 closed8–28–5-8.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-18	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Non-sports	Yes	exited	13¢ · +669	$1,001	−754
2026-09-13	Dota 2: Stray Club vs YBN Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Aesports · moneyline	YBN Club	lost	36¢ · +180	$251	−251
2026-09-11	Noche UFC: Dan Ige vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline	David Martinez	won	80¢ · -400	$566	+134
2026-09-10	Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs BBL (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group C