Public evidence record

aaronkozinets

0x6ca62b30aa460029bc99d624680a53c738134b74

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.5%1,269 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.5%$110,170 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.44%1,175 pre-event fills

Settlement record

538-699-20Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−47.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,269 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.3% to +1.3%

1,269 closed positions · 1,510 taker fills · $110,170 deployed

Typical position $76 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,175 pre-event fills · 6% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$522

Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?

Yes

entry 4¢ · +2678now 4¢ · +2199+0.8 pts

Open

value$285

Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 3¢ · +2876now 3¢ · +3409−0.5 pts

Open

value$153

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1550now 8¢ · +1207+1.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis567 closed216–325–20-2.4%
Baseball485 closed246–235-0.5%
Basketball91 closed25–64-13.4%
Soccer89 closed35–54-11.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5soccer · totals	Under	lost	43¢ · +133	$154	−154
2026-09-20	Saints vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline	Saints	won	22¢ · +355	$44	+156
2026-09-20	Spread: Packers (-6.5)football · spreads	Jets	won	62¢ · -161	$100	+62
2026-09-20	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline