Public evidence record

aaronkozinets

0x6ca62b30aa460029bc99d624680a53c738134b74

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.3%1,329 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.3%$119,611 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.68%1,349 pre-event fills

Settlement record

559-738-20Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−97.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,329 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.0% to +0.4%

1,329 closed positions · 1,596 taker fills · $119,611 deployed

Typical position $78 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,349 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$886

Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 3¢ · +2807now 7¢ · +1318+3.6 pts

Open

value$215

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1550now 11¢ · +830+4.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis577 closed217–334–20-3.5%
Baseball496 closed248–244-1.6%
Soccer102 closed39–63-12.4%
Basketball91 closed25–64-13.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-02	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoianatennis · moneyline	Venus Williams	lost	14¢ · +614	$52	−52
2026-11-02	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Boultertennis · moneyline	Viktorija Golubic	lost	40¢ · +150	$51	−51
2026-11-01	Charlottesville: Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chantennis · moneyline	Duncan Chan	lost	30¢ · +233	$52	−52
2026-11-01