Public evidence record

0x6f86…4fa9

0x6f86ac71c581a997a37adcde3a7fba1b25954fa9

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.4%354 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.5%$123,260 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.56%434 pre-event fills

Settlement record

193-141-9Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−32.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 354 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.6% to +0.9%

354 closed positions · 792 taker fills · $123,260 deployed

Typical position $205 (median) · closing line value measured over 434 pre-event fills · 7% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$232

UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)

Tom Nolan

entry 56¢ · -127now 47¢ · +115−9.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

MMA286 closed151–117–9-4.9%
Soccer66 closed41–23-5.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	30¢ · +233	$203	—
2026-11-05	Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	34¢ · +194	$341	—
2026-11-05	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	90¢ · -900	$494	—
2026-11-05	Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	85¢ · -567