Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?
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Public evidence record
0x6f991db222571808d51fe659c01c75c21b82db70
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-4.7%384 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-3.9%$47,361 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-1.04%251 pre-event fillsSettlement record
153-219-1Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−51.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 384 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -14.0% to +4.7%
384 closed positions · 753 taker fills · $47,361 deployed
Typical position $100 (median) · closing line value measured over 251 pre-event fills · 12% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 90 sports · 10 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: iLTW TEAM vs LenS Team - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | iLTW TEAM | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $159 | −159 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: rostikfacekid TEAM vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Stray Team | lost | 26¢ · +281 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs tao toma - Map 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | QUINTESSÊNCIA | won | 30¢ · +237 | $177 | +400 |
| 2026-11-06 |
| BASEMENT BOYS |
| won |
| 53¢ · -114 |
| $33 |
| +27 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Desports · moneyline | BASEMENT BOYS | won | 49¢ · +106 | $85 | +56 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Revise (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffsesports · moneyline | Revise | lost | 28¢ · +251 | $207 | −201 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffsesports · moneyline | BetBoom Team | won | 80¢ · -400 | $247 | +59 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Xipto Esports | won | 57¢ · -133 | $39 | +28 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Cesports · moneyline | ILLYRIANS | won | 74¢ · -280 | $246 | +84 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Cesports · moneyline | Honvéd | lost | 47¢ · +114 | $194 | −194 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs oveA - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | oveA | lost | 20¢ · +403 | $29 | −29 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs angry birds (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group Aesports · moneyline | angry birds | won | 55¢ · -122 | $72 | +56 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs angry birds - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Nemiga Gaming | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $246 | −91 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Daxak Team vs Cooman Team - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Daxak Team | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $173 | −173 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dota 2: Daxak Team vs Cooman Team - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Cooman Team | won | 79¢ · -381 | $60 | +15 |
| 2026-11-06 | Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Cesports · moneyline | BakS eSports | won | 68¢ · -210 | $241 | +109 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stageesports · moneyline | megoshort | lost | 74¢ · -285 | $405 | −210 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs Revise (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffsesports · moneyline | Dark Moon | lost | 35¢ · +189 | $62 | −62 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stageesports · moneyline | Butterfly | won | 39¢ · +153 | $103 | +150 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: Nordic Valor vs BoyBand - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | Nordic Valor | won | 26¢ · +289 | $11 | +31 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: Nordic Valor vs BoyBand (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stageesports · moneyline | Nordic Valor | lost | 21¢ · +383 | $88 | −88 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline | G2 Ares | lost | 36¢ · +182 | $128 | +16 |
| 2026-11-04 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 61¢ · -156 | $612 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Dota 2: Cooman Team vs Stray Team - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Cooman Team | won | 47¢ · +114 | $190 | +211 |
| 2026-11-04 | Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffsesports · moneyline | ALKA | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $123 | −123 |
| 2026-11-04 | Counter-Strike: Prestige vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group Besports · moneyline | Prestige | lost | 56¢ · -129 | $153 | −153 |
| 2026-11-04 | Dota 2: rostikfacekid TEAM vs iLTW TEAM (BO3) - Media Eleague Group Stageesports · moneyline | iLTW TEAM | lost | 43¢ · +135 | $103 | −103 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 6¢ · +1567 | $1 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 78¢ · -355 | $1,778 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $66 | −1 |
| 2026-10-30 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?Non-sports | Yes | won | 31¢ · +218 | $301 | +91 |
| 2026-10-30 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?Non-sports | Yes | won | 49¢ · +106 | $707 | +696 |
| 2026-10-28 | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?Non-sports | Yes | won | 48¢ · +106 | $589 | +190 |
| 2026-10-26 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 18¢ · +446 | $37 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $52 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsesports · moneyline | TEAM VISION | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-08-21 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsesports · moneyline | Vitality | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $103 | −103 |
| 2026-08-16 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 49¢ · +103 | $144 | −144 |
| 2026-08-16 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | lost | 22¢ · +355 | $52 | −52 |
| 2026-08-15 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Aesports · moneyline | BIG | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $49 | −49 |
| 2026-07-18 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | won | 48¢ · +110 | $103 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | Will France vs. England end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 7¢ · +1333 | $31 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | France vs. England · Spread France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $155 | −124 |
| 2026-07-18 | Will France win on 2026-07-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 46¢ · +116 | $205 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | France | lost | 39¢ · +155 | $309 | −309 |
| 2026-07-14 | Will France win on 2026-07-14?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 21¢ · +376 | $49 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | France vs. Spain · Spread France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | lost | 18¢ · +456 | $104 | −104 |
| 2026-07-13 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $721 | — |
| 2026-07-12 | Combo: Conor McGregor — UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) + Argentina — Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancemulti sport · combo | — | lost | 24¢ · +319 | $250 | −250 |
| 2026-07-12 | Combo: Yes — Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score + Yes — Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?soccer · combo | — | lost | 37¢ · +167 | $200 | −200 |
| 2026-07-12 | Combo: Benoît Saint Denis — UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) + Conor McGregor — UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · combo | — | lost | 17¢ · +481 | $100 | −100 |
| 2026-07-12 | Argentina vs. Switzerland · Spread Argentina (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Argentina | lost | 30¢ · +228 | $207 | −207 |
| 2026-07-11 | Combo: Conor McGregor — UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) + Over — Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 + Yes — Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?multi sport · combo | — | lost | 10¢ · +880 | $25 | −25 |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Norway | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $206 | −206 |
| 2026-07-11 | Will England win on 2026-07-11?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 27¢ · +275 | $104 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $103 | −103 |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway vs. England · Spread England (-1.5)soccer · spreads | England | lost | 29¢ · +248 | $104 | −104 |
| 2026-07-10 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 58¢ · -138 | $459 | — |
| 2026-07-08 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | won | 35¢ · +186 | $204 | +368 |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Switzerland | won | 47¢ · +113 | $423 | +463 |
| 2026-07-07 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 37¢ · +170 | $509 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Colombia leading at halftime?soccer · soccer halftime result | Yes | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $199 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | exited | 32¢ · +212 | $153 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Argentina | won | 86¢ · -614 | $36 | +6 |
| 2026-07-07 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 81¢ · -426 | $34 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt · Spread Argentina (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Argentina | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $275 | −275 |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina to score first vs. Egypt?soccer · soccer first to score | No | won | 25¢ · +300 | $11 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 34¢ · +194 | $102 | — |
| 2026-07-06 | Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | won | 21¢ · +376 | $51 | +187 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Non-sports | No | lost | 52¢ · -109 | $203 | +134 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 24¢ · +317 | $102 | — |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Mexico | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $204 | −204 |
| 2026-07-06 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 32¢ · +212 | $255 | — |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil to score first vs. Norway?soccer · soccer first to score | Yes | lost | 58¢ · -136 | $101 | — |
| 2026-07-05 | Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-07-05 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 49¢ · +104 | $203 | — |
| 2026-07-04 | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | won | 66¢ · -194 | $202 | +101 |
| 2026-07-04 | Spread: France (-1.5)soccer · spreads | France | lost | 59¢ · -144 | $152 | −152 |
| 2026-07-04 | Michael Olise: 1+ assistssoccer · soccer player assists | Yes | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-07-04 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 40¢ · +150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-07-04 | Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $51 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Cabo Verde | lost | 15¢ · +558 | $51 | −51 |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde · Spread Argentina (-2.5)soccer · spreads | Argentina | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-07-03 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 41¢ · +144 | $102 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Omar Marmoush: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $10 | −10 |
| 2026-07-03 | Mohamed Salah: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 30¢ · +237 | $41 | −41 |
| 2026-07-03 | Egypt to score first vs. Australia?soccer · soccer first to score | No | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $97 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia vs. Egypt · Spread Egypt (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Egypt | lost | 18¢ · +456 | $8 | −8 |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?soccer · soccer halftime result | No | won | 51¢ · -104 | $88 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Egypt leading at halftime?soccer · soccer halftime result | No | lost | 69¢ · -223 | $89 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 60¢ · -150 | $103 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $86 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancesoccer · soccer team to advance | Australia | lost | 41¢ · +144 | $125 | −125 |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first?soccer · soccer first to score | No | won | 87¢ · -669 | $37 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia to score first vs. Egypt?soccer · soccer first to score | No | won | 63¢ · -170 | $41 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 57¢ · -135 | $101 | — |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $20 | −20 |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 62¢ · -163 | $202 | +120 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalssoccer · soccer player goals | Yes | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $102 | −102 |