Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?
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Public evidence record
0x73d553debdcd60b4a025dbfebc50c70649d074c8
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-3.7%219 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-5.3%$13,892 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-0.50%178 pre-event fillsSettlement record
121-61Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−8.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 219 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.4% to +2.9%
219 closed positions · 403 taker fills · $13,892 deployed
Typical position $10 (median) · closing line value measured over 178 pre-event fills · 22% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 89 sports · 11 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Bears Team Total: O/U 23.5football · team totals | Over | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $13 | −13 |
| 2026-09-20 | Bengals vs. Texans: O/U 40.5football · totals | Over | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $13 | −13 |
| 2026-09-19 | SMU vs. Louisville · Spread Louisville (-7.5)football · spreads | SMU | lost | 68¢ · -213 | $14 | −14 |
| 2026-09-19 | North Carolina vs. Clemson · Spread Clemson (-7.5) |
| North Carolina |
| lost |
| 69¢ · -223 |
| $7 |
| −7 |
| 2026-09-19 | North Texas vs. Texas State: O/U 54.5football · totals | Over | won | 73¢ · -270 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-18 | AS Monaco FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: AS Monaco FC O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 58¢ · -138 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-18 | Australia Tour of Zimbabwe ODIs: Zimbabwe vs Australiasoccer · moneyline | Australia | exited | 98¢ · -5782 | $197 | +3 |
| 2026-09-17 | Juventus FC vs. NEC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 71¢ · -245 | $14 | +6 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 1¢ · +11011 | $4 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Coventry City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -186 | $20 | +10 |
| 2026-09-16 | AC Milan vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | Yes | lost | 63¢ · -170 | $19 | −19 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 36¢ · +175 | $773 | — |
| 2026-09-15 | Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF · Spread Real Madrid CF (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Real Madrid CF | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-09-14 | T20 Asia Cup, Women: India vs Sri Lankasoccer · moneyline | India | won | 88¢ · -733 | $88 | +12 |
| 2026-09-13 | Dolphins vs. Raidersfootball · moneyline | Raiders | won | 61¢ · -156 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Cowboys vs. Giantsfootball · moneyline | Cowboys | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-09-13 | Spread: Packers (-3.5)football · spreads | Vikings | won | 66¢ · -194 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 36¢ · +175 | $37 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Spread: Steelers (-10.5)football · spreads | Falcons | won | 69¢ · -223 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Spread: Bills (-3.5)football · spreads | Texans | lost | 64¢ · -178 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-09-13 | Buccaneers vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5football · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -186 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-13 | SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-09-12 | Arizona State vs. Texas A&M: O/U 45.5football · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -186 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 62¢ · -163 | $6 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-12?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 73¢ · -270 | $7 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-09-11 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 59¢ · -144 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-11 | T20 Asia Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistansoccer · moneyline | Sri Lanka | exited | 61¢ · -159 | $31 | −27 |
| 2026-09-11 | Falcons vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5football · totals | Over | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5football · receiving yards | Over | won | 50¢ · -100 | $3 | +3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Spread: Rams (-2.5)football · spreads | Rams | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Manchester United FC vs. Sabah FK: Manchester United FC O/U 2.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 72¢ · -257 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-10 | FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 74¢ · -285 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma: AS Roma O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-09-10 | Patriots vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | exited | 62¢ · -163 | $3 | −2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Cowboys vs. Giantsfootball · moneyline | Giants | won | 40¢ · +150 | $2 | +3 |
| 2026-09-09 | SSC Napoli vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 74¢ · -285 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-09 | FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 70¢ · -233 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-09 | VfB Stuttgart vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 59¢ · -144 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Non-sports | Yes | won | 45¢ · +125 | $45 | — |
| 2026-09-08 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 62¢ · -163 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Real Madrid CF vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | Yes | won | 66¢ · -194 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-08 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 30¢ · +233 | $51 | −27 |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 68¢ · -213 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Texas State vs. Texas · Spread Texas (-24.5)football · spreads | Texas | won | 63¢ · -170 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Boise State vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5football · totals | Over | won | 66¢ · -194 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-05 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 43¢ · +133 | $44 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 19¢ · +428 | $19 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 15¢ · +567 | $15 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 26¢ · +285 | $27 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 74¢ · -285 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-05 | FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | lost | 63¢ · -170 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-09-05 | FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-09-05 | Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 10¢ · +900 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halystennis · moneyline | Alexander Zverev | won | 87¢ · -669 | $18 | +2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Colorado vs. Georgia Techfootball · moneyline | Georgia Tech | lost | 69¢ · -223 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-09-02 | FC Salzburg vs. SK Rapid: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 69¢ · -223 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Celtic FC vs. Aberdeen FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 70¢ · -233 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-08-31?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 77¢ · -335 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | US Lecce vs. AS Roma: AS Roma O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 60¢ · -150 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-08-31 | Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 67¢ · -203 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-08-31 | Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $4 | −4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cagliari Calcio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: FC Internazionale Milano O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | lost | 64¢ · -178 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-08-30 | Will England win?soccer · moneyline | Yes | exited | 62¢ · -163 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-30 | Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 0.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 63¢ · -167 | $13 | +7 |
| 2026-08-30 | Real Madrid CF vs. Málaga CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 2.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 70¢ · -233 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-30 | FC Augsburg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 56¢ · -127 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Plovdiv 3: Togan Tokac vs Ergi Kirkintennis · moneyline | Ergi Kirkin | won | 87¢ · -669 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Plovdiv 3: Anthony Genov vs Peter Fajtatennis · moneyline | Peter Fajta | won | 67¢ · -203 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-29 | New Mexico State vs. Florida State: O/U 47.5football · totals | Over | won | 52¢ · -108 | $5 | +5 |
| 2026-08-29 | Inter Miami CF vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | Yes | won | 67¢ · -203 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-29 | North Carolina vs. TCUfootball · moneyline | TCU | lost | 74¢ · -285 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-08-29 | Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $6 | −6 |
| 2026-08-29 | RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -186 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-08-28 | FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 66¢ · -194 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-28 | AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 63¢ · -170 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Combo: Over — FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 + Yes — Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-27? + Yes — Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?soccer · combo | — | lost | 53¢ · -115 | $5 | −5 |
| 2026-08-27 | Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 76¢ · -317 | $8 | −8 |
| 2026-08-27 | Aarhus GF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 68¢ · -213 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol · Spread Real Madrid CF (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Real Madrid CF | won | 62¢ · -163 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Viking FK vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 61¢ · -156 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-08-25 | FK Bodø/Glimt vs. NEC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 75¢ · -300 | $5 | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | LASK Linz vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -186 | $4 | +2 |
| 2026-08-24 | AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 75¢ · -300 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 69¢ · -223 | $4 | −4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Will Sri Lanka win?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 10¢ · +953 | $20 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23?soccer · moneyline | Yes | exited | 65¢ · -186 | $17 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 72¢ · -257 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 74¢ · -285 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 31¢ · +223 | $52 | −42 |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Everton FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Will Everton FC win on 2026-08-22?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 43¢ · +133 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $4 | −4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 62¢ · -163 | $13 | +7 |
| 2026-08-21 | Will Australia win?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 88¢ · -733 | $44 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | exited | 60¢ · -150 | $31 | +4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: Arsenal FC O/U 1.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 74¢ · -285 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 50¢ · -100 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 72¢ · -257 | $4 | +1 |